Stat of the Day, 25th October 2014
Best Example never really looked like winning at Doncaster on Friday afternoon and the market was proved right in the end, as our horse drifted out to 6/1 at the off.
He was held held up but in touch and primed for a late run, but never picked up when asked for an effort and remained one paced to the finish.
The end result of this was that he finished 4th, the best of 9 lengths behind the winner.
It hasn’t been the best of weeks for SotD, but not only are we due one, it is a very difficult time of year to be punting. That said, we’re still in profit for the month and we’ve still one opportunity to add a little gloss to the current week. And so we turn our sights to Wales and the…
And what looks a very generous price of 11/2 BOG about former course and distance winner Tokyo Javilex.
This horse is trained by Nigel Hawke…
…who might not be the most famous of NH trainers, but he’s certainly one to keep an eye on. In fact, if you had staked £10 on each of 765 NH runners since 2008, you would have added £3047 (39.8% ROI) to your £7650 betting kitty. And that comes from 55 winners at a strike rate of 7.2%.
Obviously when the returns are so high from a low strike rate, it means there’s the odd big winner here and there skewing the figures, so if we only considered his runners priced at 12/1 or shorter, we should get a more realistic view of things.
With the 12/1 odds cap in place, his record then becomes 49 winners from 299 runners (16.4% SR) for 96.7pts (+32.3% ROI) and these look far palatable and sustainable to me. His sub-12/1 record in chases is 34/165 (20.6% SR) for 109.2pts at an ROI of 66.2%, whilst his runners here at Chepstow in the same odds range have won 9 of 28 starts (32.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 34.8pts (+124.2% ROI).
Nigel Hawke’s runners sent off at 12/1 or shorter in chase events here at Chepstow are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 28.7pts (+159.3% ROI) profit since 2008.
Today’s jockey is Sam Twiston-Davies…
And Sam is in great form just at present, winning 7 times and making the frame a further 7 times from 25 rides in the last seven days, so his confidence is sure to be high. Since 2011 he has won 8 of the 30 (26.7% SR) Chepstow chases he has contested and any punters backing him blindly in those races would now be 9.7pts better off which represents a 32.5% return on stakes invested.
Interestingly, all 8 winners came from the 21 runners priced below 8/1 and this 38.1% strike rate has so far generated level stakes profits of 18.7pts at an ROI of 89.2%.
Sam is 2 from 2 for Nigel Hawke in such races with both victories coming aboard today’s runner, Tokyo Javilex: once over 24.5f and once over today’s course and distance of 27.5f.
Those two wins under Sam Twiston-Davies were this horse’s only previous visits to this track, so he comes here today seeking a hat-trick and defending an unbeaten record at this venue. This will be his sixth effort over fences and with three wins and a runner-up berth from his five previous chases, he has taken to jumping really well.
The presence of Anthony Honeyball’s Jackie Solitaire at the head of the market means there’s some possible value knocking about for Tokyo Javilex and I may have read this wrong, but I’m not convinced that the favourite should be 2/1 BOG or even shorter coming back from a fairly long layoff and carrying top weight. That, of course, only affects us in so much that we’re likely to be taking a longer price now than I expected to get.
I was expecting to get around 7/2 for our selection, so I was pleased to see him offered a full two points bigger with both Bet365 and BetVictor at 11.00pm on Friday evening (no rest for the wicked!). There’s probably enough juice in the current price to take an E/W shot at this one, but such has been my own form of late that he’ll either win or not be placed. So, feel free to go E/W, but for me it’s a 1pt win bet on Tokyo Javilex at 11/2 BOG with Bet365. Don’t forget that BetVictor are matching that price and for all the other firms’ offerings…
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