Double Dutch, 25th October 2014
There was almost an air of inevitability hanging over us yesterday as we once again surfaced empty handed with another winner/runner-up combo. I really liked Wiesentraum at Fakenham yesterday, so much so that he was one of main bets of the day and he duly obliged for us, winning comfortably by six lengths despite being eased right down after the last fence.
Unfortunately that excellent run counted for nothing in regards to the double, as just 20 minutes earlier Vegas Rebel just failed by a neck to catch the leader after coming from well off the pace in the final furlong and would most likely have got his nose in front 20 yards further on.
However, the bookies are reluctant to pay out on what ifs and maybes, so it’s another 2pts lost, I’m afraid!
Friday’s results were as follows:
Vegas Rebel: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
St Brelades Bay: u/p at 5/1 (adv 5/2)
Wiesentraum: won at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Teak: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
383 winning selections from 1352 = 28.33%
122 winning bets in 352 days = 34.66%
P/L : +37.96pts (+5.40% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last chance of the week to break this 1-2 sequence…
Red Seventy looks the best treated here off 116 and although he hasn’t been in top form of late, did show some signs of a recovery when not disgraced in finishing 6th of 7 over course and distance here back in September. That run was better than the bare result looks for despite hitting the last hurdle quite hard and losing some ground, he was beaten by just over 5 lengths by the eventual winner.
That was a Class 2 contest and Roman Flight (who finished 3rd, 4 lengths ahead of Red Seventy) has since won twice at Class 3 level, including a nice win yesterday. This represents a major drop in quality down to Class5 and could be just the race to get Red Seventy winning again at 11/4 BOG.
The biggest obstacle barring his return to winning ways will be the current 6/4 BOG favourite Hawdyerwheesht, who comes here off the back of a win at Chepstow, albeit in a similar standard of seller. Hawdyerwheesht has been very consistent since switching to hurdles, enjoys the current ground conditions and as n ex-Flat horse, won’t mind the drop back in trip, which should allow him to demonstrate his ground speed to better effect.
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of this race 7 times in the last 16 years and three times in the last five and will fancy his chances with Jacobean who currently trades at 100/30 BOG. This is, of course, major step up in quality to what he faced on debut, but he certainly caught the eye with a fast finish at the Curragh just 13 days ago. You know he’s going to improve and the way he finished suggested that the move to a mile would also play to his strengths. Jacobean was runner-up on debut that day and I fear he might suffer the same fate today behind…
…Elm Park, who is surely the one to beat at 2/1 BOG. He comes here on the back of a hat-trick of wins, including success at Listed level and a Group 2 win last time out in the Royal Lodge Stakes four weeks ago. It has been said that it wasn’t the best renewal of that particular race, but Elm Park could only beat what was in front of him and despite being outpaced in the midsection of the race, stayed on well to win by a length and that run is probably the best piece of form on display here.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Hawdyerwheesht / Elm Park @ 6.50/1 (6/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Hawdyerwheesht / Jacobean @ 9.83/1 (6/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Red Seventy / Elm Park @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet)
Red Seventy/ Jacobean @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Bet365)