Double Dutch, 27th October 2014
It might only have been a short-priced winning double on Saturday that paid us out at 13/2, but it was more than welcome for a few reasons.
Firstly, it once again highlighted the benefit if using the BOG bookies, as our 13/2 bet only paid out at 17/4 at SPp, meaning that although our profit was modest on the day, we got 153% of SP.
Secondly, it was good to get that 1-2 monkey off my back. A week of consistently decent performances yielding nothing is frustrating and to pair a winner with a runner-up every day was mildly annoying, shall we say? 😀
As it was, Hawdyerwheesht was workmanlike to grind out a one length victory at Stratford to send us with renewed hope for the Racing Post trophy, where surely Elm Park would do the business?
And so it was, Elm Park was asked to go and win the race from a furlong out and off he went, impressively sweeping home to win by the best art of three lengths to at least enable us to end the week on a high.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Hawdyerwheesht: won at evens (adv 6/4)
Red Seventy: fell at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Elm Park: won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Jacobean: 4th at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
385 winning selections from 1356 = 28.39%
123 winning bets in 353 days = 34.84%
P/L : +39.71pts (+5.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday’s are invariably poor / tricky / awkward (delete as applicable! 😀 ), but here goes…
As I tend to do in these juvenile races, I’ll take one from those with racecourse experience and one newcomer. of those with runs under their belt, Ythan Waters has demonstrated a good level of consistency and surely sets the benchmark for success here. He’s still a maiden after 7 starts, but certainly knows what the game is about and having been placed 5 times (4 times a runner-up), he’s generally the one to beat. He seems to lose and/or weaken late on and the drop back in trip to 6f might just be what he heeds to get off the mark at 9/4 BOG.
The newcomer who catches my eye is the Goldolphin-owned and Saeed bin Suroor-trained Highest Level. Readers of SotD will know I’m a fan of Saeed and his ability to get his two year olds ready and I expect this one to be no different. He’s out of a half sister to the decent Queen of Naples and he’s by Invincible Spirit whose 2 yr olds have a good recent at the shorter trips. The yard doesn’t come here often but their juvies are 3/11 in recent years and this could make it 4/12 with a win at 9/4 BOG.
There’s absolutely nothing to split them in the market, but favs/jt favs are 56/117 (47.9% SR) for 34.4pts (+29.4% ROI) in 2 yo non-handicaps here at Redcar in the last five years.
Sir Domino was beaten by less than two lengths and looked pretty impressive on debut at Redcar 10 days ago. The ground was on the softer side of good to soft, so he should relish the conditions underfoot here today. He was only beaten by a more experienced (and 1/2 fav!) stablemate, Properus that day and managed to pull 6 lengths clear of the third placed horse with the rest of the field spread out behind them. There’s no hot pot to contend with and he’s sue to come on for the run and looks most likely here at 6/4 BOG (Stan James)
Of the rivals, I’d expect the main threat to be Quintus Cerialis who is similarly priced at 6/4 BOG and comes here off the back of a decent enough run to finish third at York in a better race than this. She was only beaten by four lengths that day against some promising types, but did finsih three lengths ahead of Wolfofwallstreet who is a warm favourite in the 1.40 ar Redcar today and his performance might give us some clues as to what we can expect here.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Ythan Waters / Sir Domino @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Ythan Waters / Quintus Cerialis @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Highest Level / Sir Domino @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Highest Level / Quintus Cerialis @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)