Double Dutch, 4th November 2014
No dice yesterday, bringing to an end a week of largely unabated profits that has added ten points or so to the bottom line. Clearly then, it’s straight back on the horse this afternoon.
Running a little late – jetlag, awful – but I’ve narrowed things down to three races, and I hope I’ve chosen the right pair.
Monday’s results were as follow
Hamoody: 4th at 9/2 (adv )
Fitz Flyer: 3rd at 9/4 (adv )
Cerutty: won at 2/7 (NR badly affected price)
Panatella: NR (adv )
Results to date:
395 winning selections from 1379 = 28.64%
127 winning bets in 359 days = 35.38%
P/L : +45.79pts (+6.38% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s a really good card at Exeter this afternoon, starting with a 2m5f novices hurdle where the top two in the betting look to have very solid chances. Harry Fry is undoubtedly a trainer going places and this season could be his break through at the highest level. He runs Thomas Brown here, a dual bumper winner on good to soft ground, the same as today’s turf. This lad’s only defeat after his debut was on heavy ground which he hated. Sure to be fit and well schooled for his hurdling bow, he’ll take the beating.
Against him, Paul Nicholls saddles the long absent but very talented Vago Collonges. Not seen since finishing second in the Grade 2 champion bumper at Aintree in 2013, he too is sure to be fairly well wound up for his hurdling debut. He’s actually yet to win for Nicholls, having been second in a Listed bumper on his other start for the yard, but was a dual winner in France before being imported.
There are some other promising runners in the field and it may be a race to keep an eye on for the future, but our pair ought to be too good.
This is a competitive little heat, but a couple – one with proven form on the track – make this ticket. Cousin Khee won his only start here, three runs back, over a mile and six furlongs. That was a facile victory suggesting he should see out today’s longer trip without a problem, and I think he’ll probably win.
There are a few possibles in opposition, including Arabian Revolution and Moidore. Moidore gets the nod narrowly due to his proven stamina and effectiveness on a soft surface. While that latter point isn’t a gimme to translate to Southwell’s deep sand, it is an indication of an ability to handle it. The horse is talented and the stable is in good form right now.
Arabian Revolution doesn’t seem to have gone on from his debut win and, though it’s too early to write him off after four starts, he’s trying two miles for the first time and didn’t handle soft last time, thought that was after a break. It’s worth noting too that trainer Saeed bin Suroor has had just three runners here since 2009 (one winner). I am actually as bothered by Kingscombe, whose 6 from 8 record round here is impressive, as I am by the Godolphin runner. But we can’t back ’em all!
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Thomas Brown / Cousin Khee – 5.05/1 (6/5 & 7/4 Hills)
Thomas Brown / Moidore – 11.38/1 (5/4 & 9/2 BetVictor)
Vago Collonges / Cousin Khee – 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 Hills)
Vago Collonges / Moidore – 14.13/1 (7/4 & 9/2 bet365)