Stat of the Day, 5th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2014

A frustrating evening last night as Ed Walker’s Glorious Sun was beaten into second at 9/4 (advised 5/2). That mild annoyance was compounded by his other runner winning at 7/1. Onwards, to another trainer in form, and his runner in the…

2.10 Chepstow:

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Philip Hobbs is in magnificent form at the moment. Coming into Tuesday, he’d saddled 11 winners from 36 runners in the past fortnight. He added 7/1 Gas Line Boy to that tally, to move his profit figure on to £27.52 in that time and a strike rate around 30%.

That recent form, allied to an excellent longer term record at Chepstow, leads me to Lord Protector. Hobbs has an 8 from 32 (25%) record in the last year at the Welsh border track, and his figures since 2009 are even more impressive: 41 winners from 220 runners for a profit of £22.99 to a £1 level stake.

Lord Protector for his part is moving into chase company for the first time in this limited novices’ handicap chase, and he has a good chance of being better of the bigger brutes than he was over the tiddlers. His most recent official hurdles rating is 125 and that’s what he starts life from in chase company. With a win at today’s distance, going and class boosted by the fact that today’s going is forecast as heavy, and with a win after a 60+ day layoff suggesting he goes well fresh, Hobbs’ horse has a good chance.

The irritation is that the trainer also saddles Quick Decisson, another that likes heavy ground (three wins in seven starts in the deep mud), but those three wins were all at Wincanton and his four heavy ground runs elsewhere have so far failed to yield even a place.

7/2 is readily available on Lord Protector, and that’ll do nicely, Best Odds Guaranteed, for a one point win bet.

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