Double Dutch, 5th November 2014
Soooo frustrated with yesterday’s DD. I really was that close to including Kingscombe on the back of his stellar Southwell record, but ‘bottled’ it due to the price. Aargh. He’d have completed an 18/1 double… As it was he necked out Cousin Khee, the pair 14 lengths clear of the third. Onwards.
Tuesday’s results were as follow
Thomas Brown: won at 5/6 (adv 5/4)
Vago Collonges: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Cousin Khee: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Moidore: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
396 winning selections from 1383 = 28.63%
127 winning bets in 360 days = 35.28%
P/L : +43.79pts (+6.09% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is a very interesting race: it’s a novice hurdle featuring a high class chaser and a proven handicap hurdler. And that pair, Mendip Express and Masterofdeception, will do for me.
The former looked most impressive in the early part of last season, bolting up in a good handicap chase on New Year’s Day. After that, though, he could finish only third of four in a hot novice chase at Newbury (heavy ground) and he pulled up in an Ayr handicap chase. It’s possible that he has bleeding issues and, if that’s the case, then fresh is the best time to catch him. He’s first time up today after a break of 207 days, and if he runs his race he’ll win.
If he doesn’t, Dr Richard Newland’s Masterofdeception should take advantage. Winner of a Class 4 Aintree handicap hurdle, he then just failed to follow up in a Class 2 event at Southwell, where he finished second. He’s a progressive sort and both trip and ground look spot on.
The danger is Alan King’s The Tourard Man but, as an ex-pointing eight year old, he doesn’t have nearly as much to recommend him as the other eight year old, Mendip Express.
A Listed event over a mile and a half, and some good horses in here. The two to concentrate on however look to be Rydan and Grendisar.
Rydan is stepping out of handicap company after a whopping six length win over a similar trip here last time. That pushed him up to a mark of 97, the clear third highest in the field, and screamed his affection for today’s conditions.
Against him, Grendisar is second top-rated and a bit of a bridesmaid in truth, but he has won here twice over course and distance, as well as finishing second another four times. He’s nailed on to run his race and that will again see him go close.
The highest rated runner in the field is Fire Fighting, and he could beat them both. But his trainer, Mark Johnston, is currently on what must surely be the worst run of his career: in the last 30 days he’s saddled 85 horses, none of which have won! It’s hard to play a 7/2 chance in that context, and we’ll simply have to wear it if he makes it 86th time lucky.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Mendip Express / Rydan – 6.15/1 (6/5 & 9/4 Hills)
Mendip Express / Grendisar – 6.88/1 (5/4 & 5/2 BetVictor)
Masterofdeception / Rydan – 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 Hills)
Masterofdeception / Grendisar – 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 BetVictor)