Stat of the Day, 6th November 2014
A doggy old run from Lord Protector on Wednesday, as he trailed in last of the nine finishers as the 11/4 favourite. Scant consolation that we took 7/2, but value is a long game. To Thursday, and a choice of a couple, Nexius at Musselburgh discarded, in favour of…
Marco Botti gets all four green form symbols on the geegeez racecard for this very interesting Class 2 handicap over nine and a half furlongs. That means he’s in form for the past fortnight, the past month, the past year at the track, and at the track since 2009.
In the last year here at Wolver, he’s managed 21 winners from just 83 runners, a 25.3% strike rate. Those winners were worth £17.52 to a £1 level stake and, since 2009, Botti is closing in on a century of winners at the track, his current tally being 93.
Tonight he saddles the ex-Brazilian Energia Flavio – a dark horse for sure – and Solar Deity, about which we know a good bit more. For instance, we know that Solar Deity has had six runs at Wolverhampton with form of 131212. And we know that he was burgled in that last second, getting stopped in his run before flying at the death and going down by a head.
We also know that was his only defeat over course and distance, granted from just two starts. And we know that Martin Harley gets on brilliantly with him, as form of 1112 here attests. The sole defeat was, you guessed it, that unlucky run the last day.
Harley himself is in great form after a very smart ride to prevail on the tricky Grendisar for the same trainer last night (Wednesday). The trainer and jockey have paired up at Wolves 57 times since 2009, recording 15 wins (26.32%) and another 19 placed efforts (59.65% win and place).
With the favourite in the race being Maverick Wave, a horse yet to prove he stays beyond a mile or acts on tapeta; and with pace virtually guaranteed from Sound Advice and Master Of Finance, Solar Deity is expected to overcome his 202 day layoff and go very close at around 4/1. As such, it’s a one point win bet with those odds generally available and best odds guaranteed.
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