Double Dutch, 7th November 2014
We got through what I considered the trickier leg yesterday, as Nexius gave us 5/2 rolling on to the top of the market in a novices’ hurdle. Alas, when Hurricane’s Girl tumbled at the fourth we looked a bit exposed, and when Leaderofthedance took it up between the last two it was only a fleeting flirtation with the front. She backed out of things disappointingly – for me at least, I expected her to stay much better – and our day was sunk.
The joy of DD is that we never have to wait long to get back on the horse, and so let’s do that…
Thursday’s results were as follow
Nexius: won at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Pass Muster: 8th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Hurricane’s Girl: fell at 13/8 (adv 13/8)
Leaderofthedance: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
399 winning selections from 1391 = 28.68%
128 winning bets in 362 days = 35.36%
P/L : +44.67pts (+6.17% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Two races today that look largely between three horses, and I’ve reasons to discount one in each case. In this, a juvenile hurdle, I’m against the most experienced in the field, Al Musheer, for two reasons. First, he’s been beaten far enough in each of his three attempts and should have less progression than his rivals; and second, his trainer, Donald McCain, could not be said to be firing just now: just four winners from 38 starts in the last fortnight.
So it’s El Beau and Blue Talisman for me. El Beau is trained by John Quinn, and was rated 76 on the flat when racing at between a mile and a mile and a quarter. If he stays, he probably wins. Blue Talisman was only rated 60 on the flat but may have already achieved as much over timber in one start, when finishing third of twelve in a similar event at Wetherby. He’s sure to come on for that, and ought to go close.
One to look out for at a big price might be Archipeligo. Formerly with Lady Cecil, he was sold to Ian Jardine at the Horses In Training sale, and was quite liked at his old yard. 33/1 is big, though I’d be surprised if he won.
Although Jamie Osborne is in fine form at the moment – Toast Of New York the cherry on the cake – his Frozen Princess looks a bit of a piggy, and she’s overlooked in favour of Miss Jonh and George Bailey.
Miss Jonh represents the bang in form team of Martyn Meade – eight winners from sixteen runners in the last month – and she’s entitled to step up a good amount on her sole start to date. That was a four length fourth at Lingfield over this five furlong trip way back in May. She’ll have grown plenty since then and, though the absence does suggest she may have had a problem, there has been encouraging support for her this morning.
George Bailey is the marginal form pick. Rated 64 – next best is 62 – he’s had just the three runs, all on turf, and was only a couple of lengths behind the winner on the middle effort of the trio. He’s easily forgiven a non-staying effort over six furlongs on soft ground last time, where he led before fading in the last half furlong, and he may again be prominent today.
The fly in the ointment is likely to be the well backed Wiseton. His form doesn’t amount to that much so far, but he too has been absent for a couple of months and may have improved. Still, he’ll need to have given that he’s yet to get closer than five lengths second to Grey Zeb, a non-winner (or placer) in three subsequent runs.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
El Beau / Miss Jonh – 7.75/1 (6/4 & 5/2 bet365)
El Beau / George Bailey – 10.5/1 (6/4 & 3.6/1 Betbright)
Blue Talisman / Miss Jonh – 16.5/1 (4/1 & 5/2 bet365)
Blue Talisman / George Bailey – 21.08/1 (3.8/1 & 3.6/1 Betbright)