Stat of the Day, 8th November 2014
It was a bit heavier than I’d hoped for at Fontwell yesterday and, in the circumstances, Midnight Belle did well to hang on for third. She travelled like the winner but just couldn’t go through the deep ground at the death. Lucky then that we took the coward’s route and bet her each way, yielding a small profit rather than a one point loss, and shaving SP in the process (advised 7/1, returned 13/2).
It’s the last day of the turf flat season today, and I’m siding with another going specialist in the…
A sad sign of the times when this Listed race is sponsored by a bookmaker advertising one of his football bets, but that’s where we are, alas. Anyway, it’s a good class six furlong sprint being run on ground described as soft, heavy in places. One chap who is absolutely at home on both soft and heavy is Jack Dexter and, after a moderate season by his standards, he’s taken to sign off with a win. Let’s look at th evidence.
Jack has raced on going ranging between soft and heavy a dozen times, and has won seven of them. That septet includes two Listed wins over course and distance, one of which was in this race last year. So we know he’s suited by conditions. His full form on soft is 1111121365 with those last two runs in higher Group 2 company.
Although trainer form is ostensibly a bit of a worry, Jim Goldie’s horses have been rattling the crossbar with frequency during the current lean spell, and many have run better than market expectations.
Graham Lee has ridden Jack for six of his eight career wins, and knows the horse inside out, and the pace scenario should set up fine for the selection. He’ll be able to sit in behind Spinatrix (most likely) and Lancelot Du Lac and Inyordreams (probably).
11/4 BOG is the best available, with the sponsors Betfred, and it’s a one point win bet to round out the week. Good luck.
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