Double Dutch, 11th November 2014
It was the old 1-2 yesterday, as Oriental Splendour’s length and a half defeat was all that separated us from a 13/1 double to round off a years worth of picks.
Just 10 minutes prior to that race, Lamps had run out a comfortable 12-lengths winner at 11/4, giving us a great opportunity to add more profit to the bottom line on the 365th day of this free service.
It wasn’t to be, but a P/L of +61.42pts and an ROI of almost 8.5% is still a decent return from a service that both Matt and myself are rightly proud of. And bearing in mind that our maximum strike rate can only be 50%, 28.7% isn’t bad going either and we’re hitting the double on average just over twice a week (we take Sundays off!)
Monday’s results were as follows:
Lamps: won at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Debt To Society: u/p at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Oriental Splendour: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
The Dapper Tapper: u/p at 13/2 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
403 winning selections from 1403 = 28.72%
129 winning bets in 365 days = 35.34%
P/L : +61.42pts (+8.42% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A little bit groggy after a post-holiday lie-in, I hope to hit the ground running on my return to the chair with these today…
If all goes to plan, then this one should be landed by the 7/4 BOG shot Distime. He ran well at Aintree 16 days ago, despite not having had a run for over 10 months and was only eventually beaten into second place by 4.5 lengths behind Baileys Concerto, who won again 4 days ago, despite a 7lb rise in weights. I’d expect Distime to come on for his run and a 2lb rise shouldn’t cause him too much trouble here today. This is just his fifth crack at fences, but he has been placed second in three of his four previous efforts, he’s also got a 222 record over today’s trip and has shown a liking for softer ground on the past.
The rival that interests me most in the chase debutant Greensalt. he’s a 6yr old by Milan who hasn’t failed to make the frame in any of his seven career starts (3 NHF and 4 hurdles) to date in a form line reading 2322232, including decent runs on soft/heavy ground and over today’s trip.
Being by Milan would suggest that he’ll take to fences readily enough and you can be assured that Donald McCain (29.6% SR here in the last 4 yrs) will have schooled him well in the the eight months since he was last seen being beaten by just a short head (caught on the line!) at Hexham in a race half a furlong longer than today and looks a decent backup plan at 4/1 BOG.
Tresor de Bontee returns to make a seasonal reappearance after a 215 day absence from the track, but he kicked off last winter’s campaign with a win over this trip on heavy ground off the back of a 290-day break, so I’ve no issues about his ability to run well first time out. He has two wins and a place from four outings on heavy ground and has won twice and finished third on the last three occasions he has run over the minimum trip, giving his an overall form line of 113 over 2 miles on heavy ground.
Conditions look ideal for him to kick off the new season with a win at 9/4 BOG in a race that hopefully won’t take much winning.
As an alternate pick, I’m going to overlook the favourite Vikekhal, who doesn’t seem to offer much value at a sub-2/1 price, having run in snatches last time out and is up in weight, drastically down in trip and mightn’t get the ground. That doesn’t mean he can’t go well here, but I just feel there’s more mileage in a 5/1 BOG bet on Morgans Bay, who was a winner on his yard debut for Laura Mongan last time out. That came off a break of 159 days and it’s possible he could improve further for having had the run.
Morgans Bay has three wins and a place from six efforts at this trip and does run well when turned out within a fortnight of his last run (a win and a runner-up finish from two runs) and although he hasn’t yet won on heavy ground, has some decent form on soft which should help today.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Distime / Tresor de Bontee @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Betfred)
Distime / Morgans Bay @ 15.50/1 (7/4 & 5/1 : Coral & Betfair Sportsbook)
Greensalt / Tresor de Bontee @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Greensalt / Morgans Bay @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Hills & Betfair SB)