Stat of the Day, 11th November 2014
I know how this will sound, and fair enough, but I really was torn between two 16/1 shots yesterday. In the end, I sided with the heavy ground form of Alpha Victor, who could only manage fourth up at Carlisle. You’ve probably already guessed that the other on my ‘coin toss’ was Ralph Beckett’s Pacify, which won at 16/1.
Ralph has a great record with first time out juveniles, and incredible record at Kempton, and a great relationship with jockey Seb Sanders. But you know all that now… It’s just been one of those runs recently.
To today, and a trainer in white hot form, in the…
Tom George is flying right now. He has been for a month and more. And the main beneficiary of that form is jockey Paddy Brennan. Together, they’ve sent 20 horses from the starter’s tapes in the last 30 days, and nine of them (45%) have won.
In the last 14 days, that form gets even hotter, with seven of the twelve horses (58%) saddled and ridden in that fortnight coming home in front.
They run two today, so there’s a chance of ‘the other one’ (Dandy Duke, 3.40 Huntingdon) winning, but the horse I’m drawn to in the context of the above is O Maonlai. This ex-Irish lad is, like a number of his rivals, having his first run over fences today in a novices’ limited handicap chase.
The market is made by the presence of Ned Stark, a good winner of a Chepstow staying novice hurdle last term, but one that looked on the big side and who might come on for the run. He ensures everything else is 4/1 or bigger.
O Maonlai for his part finished a five length 3rd to The Tullow Tank in a novice, before winning a 25 runner (!) event as the 6/4 favourite (!!) at Fairyhouse in February.
His two wins have come on heavy so the soft ground should post few threats, and any further easing in the ground would be a further plus to his chance. Really, it’s all about the trainer/jockey form, and I’ll risk a half point each way bet, BOG, at 15/2 on O Maonlai, available with Hills.
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS