Stat of the Day, 12th November 2014
Matt was unable to round off his stint in the hotseat with a winning bet yesterday, as O Maonlai finished a place outside the money, coming home 4th at odds of 4/1, making our advised odds of 15/2 E/W look very good value indeed.
Results might not quite be going our way of late, but when you’re constantly smashing SP like Matt did yesterday, then the more patient punters who play the long game will ultimately be rewarded.
My first day back in the chair after some Egyptian sunshine sees me heading overseas to the beach once again, but somewhat less exotically, it’s a rare SotD foray to Ireland for some A/W action in the..
Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about the 6yr old gelding Whaileyy…
..whose jockey and trainer are both in excellent form.
In the last fortnight, trainer Michael Halford has saddled up six winners from his 16 runners, with another six making the frame, whilst jockey Shane Foley has ridden 7 winners from 18 with an overall place strike rate of 56%.
They are also a formidable team, particularly in today’s sort of event…
Since 2009, the Halford/Foley combination has had 39 winners from 207 runners in Dundalk A/W handicaps with the 18.8% strike rate generating excellent level stakes profits of 108.6pts at an ROI of some 52.5%. And at the sharper end of affairs, where we tend to operate, the figures are even better: those runners in the 2/1 to 6/1 odds range have won 28 of 93 (30.1% SR) races for profits of 53.6pts (+57.6% ROI)
Whaileyy is a former (LTO a week ago in fact!) course and distance winner…
And when Mr Halford has brought course and distance winners back to Dundalk in the past, they have run well. Those returning and priced at 6/1 or shorter have won 22 of 101 (21.8% SR) races and whilst the 6.9pts profit provides a modest ROI of 6.9%, it’s interested to see that the trainer does like to turn them out quickly with those running withing three weeks of their last outing going on to score on 18 of 61 (29.5% SR) occasions providing a much more palatable 29.1pts profit at an ROI of 47.8%.
Whaileyy is by Holy Roman Emperor…
…whose shorter distance offspring have a good record on this track. 79 of is progeny have run over trips of less than a mile here and the 11 winners to date represents a 13.9% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 50.4pts (63.7% ROI) and of the 11 winners, 8 came from the 48 (16.7% SR) that competed over today’s trip of 7 furlongs with the resultant 49.9pts profits giving a return over 104% above stakes invested.
If we applied a simple 8/1 odds cap on those 48 runners at 7f, we’d end up with 5 winners from 16 (31.25% SR) and profits of 18.5pts (+115.3% ROI)
Our selection is currently vying for favouritism…
…and is likely to go off no lower than 2nd in the market, which is also a positive as since 2008, the top 2 in the market in Dundalk handicaps over 7f to 1m, have won 43% of the 447 races. 192 winners from a total of 894 qualifiers (21.5% SR) have produced a reasonable 9% yield from blindly backing the top 2 resulting in an 80.4pts return. And if we restricted ourselves to those runners in the evens to 9/2 banding, we get 152 winners from 592 (25.7% SR) for 98.2pts (+16.6% ROI).
Of this 152/592 stat, trainer Michael Halford’s contribution is 28 winners from 71 (39.4% SR) for 45.6pts (+64.2% ROI), whilst Shane Foley’s record is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 31.6pts (+71.9% ROI), whilst as a team they are 14/35 (40% SR) for 23.1pts (+66% ROI), including this race last year.
Whaileyy stayed on well to land a claimer here last week over course and distance and has to be respected running off the same mark of 84 and looks set to further enhance his decent record on the All-Weather, which currently stands at 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from nine starts with all five placed runs coming at odds of 6/1 or shorter, suggesting that following the money might not be a bad idea. He’s also 2/2 in November.
So, today’s call is a 1pt win bet on Whaileyy and I’m on at 7/2 BOG with Boylesports, but for those of you suffering under their apparent betting restrictions, you can get the same deal from Paddy Power, whilst the other open book (Betfair Sportsbook) on this race sees our pick as the 100/30 favourite. As the rest of the firms open up for this race, you can…
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