Double Dutch, 12th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th November 2014

Morgans Bay drifted massively from my advised 5/1 yesterday and came within three quarters of a length of securing us a near 35/1 double which would have given me a fantastic first day back at work. He stayed on strongly and was closing in on the leader and had he not blundered the last, then who knows?

Fortunately for us though, the horse he didn’t catch was my first choice pick, Tresor de Bontee who just had enough to hold on, meaning that a 9.56/1 double was a more than satisfactory consolation prize and with the added bonus of a near 20/1 Exacta, it’s hard to quibble.

This was all made possible by Distime following the script and winning comfortably at Sedgefield earlier in the day. He proved the run at Aintree LTO was no fluke and he came on well for that experience, going on to score by 7 lengths, having been clear from 2 out. The only surprise about his victory was the half point drift out to 9/4, boosting our return.

In fact, in hindsight, yesterday was almost the perfect Double Dutch day. Two very strong picks, backed up by a big drifter, producing a respectable double with the possibility of landing a big one, should the main pick not perform. Greensalt’s fall in race 1 was the only blot on the day.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Distime: won at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Greensalt: fell at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
——————————————
Tresor de Bontee: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Morgans Bay: 2nd at 10/1 (adv 5/1)
The Exacta paid £20.80 here…

Results to date:
405 winning selections from 1407 = 28.78%
130 winning bets in 366 days = 35.52%

Stakes: 731.50pts
Returns: 796.20pts

P/L : +64.70pts (+8.84% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

As is the territory with the cyclical nature of betting, DD has seen a pleasant upturn in recent weeks and I hope to keep that ball rolling today with these…

2.40 Exeter:

Baby King‘s sole run to date was a 33/1 victory at Navan at the end of March. Since then, the runner-up that day has won once and been second once whilst Baby King has been sold for 130,000 Euros. He now makes his debut for Tom George and the yard is in great form at present and also has a 5/15 record here at Exeter in the last two years. Mr George has a good record with horses making their yard debuts and also with handicap debutants and if I’m honest, Baby King was a contender for Stat of the Day, had he not been below 2/1 last night! Thankfully there’s a little drift this morning and we can currently take 9/4 BOG.

As a backup, I’m going with Goohar at 9/2 BOG, whose form line of 433217 showed progression right up to that last run. It should however be noted that the 7th place was in a Grade 3 hurdle (EBF Final), where he still finished ahead of 9 rivals and wasn’t at all disgraced. This represents a massive step down ion class and the drop in trip is sure to help. His record around this type of distance reads 3321 and although he hasn’t run on heavy ground before, Goohar did win on soft ground over this trip and his trainer has a 12/44 record on heavy ground in the last three years.

*

7.20 Kempton:

James Fanshawe has an excellent 23.4% strike rate (64/274) here over the last 5 years and is highly profitable to follow at this track. He’ll fancy his chances with the 3/1 BOG Badr al Badoor who seeks to bounce back after being outclassed in a Group 3 event at Ascot almost six weeks ago. Prior to that outing, she had been running really well with a runner-up finish and a subsequent win both at Doncaster at today’s lower Class 2 level.

She has won over 6.5f and has finished second over today’s trip and stays on well and should be suited by the firmer conditions than she encountered at Ascot. She’s 114 here at Kempton, so she gets the track and I expect a bold show from Badr al Badoor this evening and running off bottom weight is a bonus.

I’m not too keen on the favourite, Georgian Bay and will overlook him in favour of Marco Botti’s 3 yr old Patentar, who has raced at a higher level than this in three of his previous five starts, including a 4.5 lengths defeat in a Listed contest last time out. He may well have finished 4th that day, but was 4 lengths ahead of Dream Walker who has since gone on to score.

Patentar has won 2 of his five starts to date including beating Georgian Bay by 7.5 lengths two starts ago and has  a 114 record over today’s trip and now makes his A/W bow with his trainer having a good record with horses switching codes for the first time. Marco Botti won this race last year with Grey Mirage, who unfortunately is a non-runner here today and will seek to repeat the feat with a 7/2 BOG success for Patentar.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Baby King / Badr al Badoor @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Coral)
Baby King / Patentar @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Coral)
Goohar / Badr al Badoor @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 : Hills)
Goohar / Patentar @ 23.75/1 (9/2  & 7/2 Hills)