Stat of the Day, 13th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2014

The Halford/Foley partnership was on fire at Dundalk on Wednesday evening with three winners and a runner-up from their four runners. As the success of the evening unfolded, money came for our selection Whaileyy, as he was backed in from our advised 7/2 to become one of two 9/4 joint favourites, meaning our bet was worth 156% of SP, another value bet.

The money was justified as Shane gave a good display of patient riding and bided his time before switching out wide and running on to take the lead inside the final furlong, eventually scoring by just over three parts of a length.

More A/W action for Thursday and a lunchtime trip to Nottinghamshire for the…

12.20 Southwell:

Where Connor Beasley will attempt to make full use of his 3lb claim aboard Alison Hutchinson’s 3 yr old filly Cascadia,

Alison’s not the most well known of trainers….

…but she’s not averse to landing a big winner or two and has been profitable to follow in her short training career to date. If you’d put a tenner on each of her 126 runners to date, the 15 winners (11.9% SR) would have made you a tidy £666 profit to date, which is a 52.9% return on your money. On the A/W surfaces, she’s 6/55 (10.9% SR) for 85.2pts at an ROI of 154.9%.

These high returns off low strike rates show she does hit the longer priced winners and we should investigate whether an E/W bet might be in order. 23 of her 55 A/W runners have been placed, giving a 41.8% place strike rate (anything over 40% is good for E/W backing in my opinion, if the odds are right, of course! :D) Backing all 5 on an E/W basis has yielded 144.2pts profit, a return of 131% above all stakes invested.

If we only backed Alison’s A/W runners between 6/1 & 16/1, we’d still make money from fewer bets. 6 winners from 41 (14.6% SR) have produced level stakes profits of 99.2pts (+242% ROI) so far, with the E/W bets being successful on 18 (43.9%) occasions with the resultant profits of 149.1pts equating to a 182.8% ROI.

As I said at the top, Connor Beasley’s on board today…

…and Connor is developing a reputation as a fine judge of the skills needed for All-Weather racing and has won 22 of his 104 races away from the turf. This 21.2% strike rate has generated profits of 91.9pts at an ROI of 88.3% if you’d been backing him blindly, but id you wanted to filter out some bets, you could just back him when his horse is priced between 3/1 & 16/1, where his record reads 19 winners from 68 (27.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 119.2pts (+175.3% ROI).

Cascadia was a big-priced (33/1!) winner last time out….

She made all and just hung on to win by a neck over this trip at Wolverhampton 19 days ago, but she’ll be running at a much shorter price today, but there is a precedent that says she can win again today. Since 2008, horses who won at odds of between 25/1 & 50/1 last time out and then raced at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1, won 225 of 1695 (13.3% SR) races making 200.4pts (+11.8% ROI) profit in the process.

Cascadia steps up a class today and those LTO big priced winners running at reduced odds are 55/330 (16.7% SR) for 119.1pts (+36.1% ROI) when stepping up in class.

That win last time out broke a sequence of 5 unplaced efforts…

…which makes her one of my “back to form” horses that are sent out fairly quickly after a return to winning ways as the trainers seek to strike whist the iron is hot. The basic rules for this micro-system are: A/W handicap races / won LTO / last ran within 30 days / won after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts.

Horses fitting that bill and sent off in the 5/2 to 17/2 price bracket have a record of 261 wins from 1291 races (20.2% SR) since 2007 and these winners have produced level stakes profits of 235.7pts at a respectable ROI of 18.3%. This microsystem has been very successful over the last couple of years in particular with 62 winners from 265 (23.4% SR) since the start of 2013, resulting in profits of 88.9pts (+33.6% ROI)

Yet, despite all the stats above to back up the selection today, this race is far from a shoo-in. It’s pretty competitive and you could make claims for three or four of her rivals here, but Cascadia has a decent record at this venue (153218) and has won two of her five starts at today’s Class 5 level. That win at Wolverhampton last time out was her only effort at today’s trip, but we do that she gets it. She’s also three from nine when turned out within a month of her last run, so it all points to another bold showing today.

As I said, it’s not a foregone conclusion and the fact that SkyBet are offering 7/1 BOG at the moment makes me err on the side of caution and in a bid to consolidate yesterday’s profits, the call today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Cascadia at 7/1 BOG, with the places paying out at 1/4 odds. You can, of course, wait to see how the market unfolds and for all the prices on this race…

…click here for the latest betting on the 12.20 Southwell

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Here is today’s racecard.