Stat of the Day, 14th November 2014
Cascadia was withdrawn from action yesterday after coming into season, so there’s nothing for me to report on, so I’ll move swiftly on to Friday’s pick, which goes in the…
Which is a Class 4 Handicap chase over 16.5f where I’m just about to take 100/30 BOG about Things Change. This is a lightly raced (just 4 starts to date) horse who has been off the track for 509 days, so there’s not a great deal to tell you about him.
He is, however, under the care of John (JJ) Quinn…
…whose horses are in good nick at present with 5 winners from 17 in the last fortnight and a 3/9 record over the past week. John’s runners have been profitable to back blindly over the last few years, as since the start of 2012, he saddled up 54 winners from his 222 NH runners with that 24.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 99.7pts at an ROI of 44.9%.
He doesn’t come to Newcastle too often, but in that same time frame as above his horses are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 16.3pts (+233.3% ROI) profit.
And from the original 54/222 stat above,those sent off in “SotD territory” ie 9/4 to 11/2 have won 21 of 79 (26.6% SR) outings for level stakes profits of 24.1pts at an ROI of 30.5% and his handicappers are 19/87 (21.8% SR) for 48.5pts (+55.7% ROI), whilst those handicappers falling into that lower price filter are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 28.8pts (+93% ROI) profit
He has only had two runners in the 9/4 to 11/2 zone here at Newcastle, but they have at least both been winners!
James Reveley is on board today…
…and hes also in good touch of late with 5 winners from 23 this week alone. He tends to do pretty well here at Newcastle, having won 18 of his 88 (20.5% SR) handicap contests here over the last five years and this record has materialised itself in level stakes profits of 37.9pts, a return of 43.1% above all stakes invested in that period.
15 of those 18 winners have come on horses with a bit of money behind them, as seen by the fact that he’s 15/56 (26.8% SR) here in handicaps on board horses priced between 9/4 & 15/2 and not only does this price banding account for over 83% of his winners, it also brings in almost 96% of his profit at 36.3pts or 64.8% of stakes.
James doesn’t ride too many of John’s horses, which is somewhat of a pity as he’s already scored 4 winners from just 13 rides for this trainer.
John Quinn is a wily/shrewd trainer and despite Things Change not having run for almost 73 weeks, you just know he’ll be fit and raring to go and could very well spring a surprise on his chasing debut. With just four runs to his name, he’s certainly unexposed, and wasn’t ever out of the first four home (3412) in his brief hurdling career. All four runs were in an around this type of trip and the recent rain won’t be an issue, as his two best runs to date came on soft ground, including his sole win which was incidentally off the same 118 mark as he runs off today.
The general consensus seems to be that Things Change‘s fitness will have to be taken on trust, but that the market movements are to be watched. With that in mind, the fact that he’s currently joint favourite in a couple of places would tend to suggest he’s expected to go well fresh, so I’ve no hesitation in nominating him today.
It’s time to put my money where my mouth is (it’s certainly big enough! 😀 ) and place a 1pt win bet on Things Change at 100/30 BOG. I’ve gone with Hills today, but the same price is offer in at least two other places, as you’ll see when you…
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