Stat of the Day, 15th November 2014
Anybody just casually flicking through the TV channels and stumbling across Friday’s SotD race would never have guessed that Things Change was making both his handicap and his chasing debut and was running for only the fifth time ever and after a 73-week absence from the track, such was the display he put up.
He wasn’t, admittedly, quite good enough to win, going down by three lengths after a blunder 2 from home. Whether or not he’d have won without the mistake is debatable at best, but despite a loss of a point on the day, I was happy enough with the 2nd place at our advised 10/3 odds. This horse could make a reasonable chaser and should win races in the future.
Last SotD of the week and I’d love to close out with a winner and my quest to do so leads us to the…
Now, we’re nothing if not honest here at geegeez and I don’t mind admitting that I found it difficult to find an angle today. Saturdays always seem tricky, but today especially so for a variety of reasons that I won’t bore you with.
I have, however, found a runner at a reasonable looking price with some solid stats to back up his nomination and as such, I’m backing Alfred Hutchinson at 5/1 BOG.
He is trained by Geoffrey Oldroyd…
…who is the type of trainer I often look towards when putting these pieces together, as he’s profitable to follow blindly off a large sample size. If you’d put a tenner on every one of Geoffrey’s 772 runners since the start of 2008, not only would you have backed 72 winners (9.33% SR), but you would also have made yourself a tidy £883 in the process.
This represents a return of 11.4% on your investments and whilst that’s not earth-shatteringly high, it’s excellent for blindly backing almost 800 runners.
More recently, he has begun to clock up a few winners on the All-Weather, particularly at the kind of odds I look to bet at. Over the last couple of years, his runners are 8/33 (24.2%) when sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 price bracket on the A/W and the resultant 21.3pts profit equates to almost 65p in the pound on every bet, which is good going.
He’s 6/22 here at Lingfield since 2008 and that 27.3% strike rate has generated 37.5pts profit at an ROI of 170.5%, whilst in the last two years, his runners here in that 5/2 to 10/1 price bracket are 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+203.5% ROI) profit.
William Buick is in the saddle today…
And it’s no secret about how talented this guy is. The Godolphin-bound Buick has made a good name for himself over the years and he rides this Lingfield track superbly.
There aren’t many jockeys out there who you could follow blindly at a track and make a reasonable profit, but William does that here.
Since 2008 he has ridden 52 winners from 273 (19.1% SR) on this track and although the level stakes profits of 19.6pts only represent a modest 7.2% return on investment, it certainly beats the banks or sticking it under the mattress.
The horse also likes it “on the sand”…
Alfred Hutchinson is 1/18 on turf, yet boasts an all-weather record of 6 wins and 3 places from just 16 outings. He’s 3 from 7 here at Lingfield (3113153) with an excellent record over course and distance that has seen him make the frame in each of five efforts, winning twice in a form line reading 31133.
More generally, he is 5/9 in races of less than 10 runners and three of his seven career victories have been over today’s trip. Six of his wins have been in the November to January period where his record is 6 wins and 2 places from 11 starts and all 7 career wins have been on left handed tracks.
He looks fairly well treated based on past A/W form and although this is technically the same standard of race as his last A/W outing, there’s nothing like the quality of opposition as that day when he was third in a £93,000 event, beaten by 2.5 lengths behind Captain Cat, who has since gone on to much bigger and better things.
Alfred Hutchinson runs off the same mark today (100) and a similar performance should be more than enough, which would tend to suggest there’s some value in the current odds offered. I’ve taken 5/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook about him, but his price is quite widely available, so you can take your pick of the bookies after you…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS