Double Dutch, 19th November 2014
Tuesday, unfortunately, went in a similar manner to Monday, I’m afraid. That is to say that a runner from each of our races was well backed and produced decent runs, but we had to settle for another crossbar rattling 1-2 on the day.
Things started well with the well fancied (9/4 from 16/5) Best Tamayuz justifying his support with an eyecatching piece of front running, enabling him to win by four lengths. This gave us a decent stake on what looked like two decent picks at Doncaster.
Early morning favourite Monksgold was easy to back, but didn’t shine on his handicap debut. He ran well enough, but tired/faded late on and might need a step down in trip to progress. The money, however, came for Cloud Creeper, who as I’d hoped/expeced came on for having had a run five weeks earlier and he did nothing wrong really, bar a small error four out.
He tired late on and failed in his bid to concede 15lbs to Boruma, ridden by the in-form James Reveley who was landing the third leg of a daily hat-trick in beating our runner by six lengths, pulling clear in the final 100 yards.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Best Tamayuz: won at 9/4 (adv 16/5)
Mops Angel: u/p at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Cloud Creeper: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
Monskgold: u/p at 5/2 (adv 21/10)
Results to date:
412 winning selections from 1431 = 28.79%
132 winning bets in 372 days = 35.48%
P/L : +78.58pts (+10.57% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A couple of near misses so far this week says we’re on the right lines, but a little more is needed, starting with…
In what looks a pretty poor contest amongst horses with lots of zeroes in their form lines and very few wins, this could be an ideal opportunity for former course and distance winner Misty Lady to get her name back on the scoreboard. That win was back in January, where she stayed on well in similarly testing conditions to today. She eventually won by 2.25 lengths off a mark of 85 and was 4.5 lengths ahead of the third placed horse, Snowell who followed up that race by rattling off a hat-trick of wins inside 25 days, the last of which came off a mark of 93.
Misty Lady runs off 87 today, just 2lbs higher than that CD win and the same mark as she ran well off at Wexford on her seasonal (194 days off) reappearance at Wexford 25 days ago. She was beaten by six lengths that day and is expected to improve for the outing and looks to have a decent chance here at 4/1 BOG.
My slight preference, however, is for Bank Man, despite him still being winless after five starts, all over hurdles. He has been making steady progress, though and the drop down to today’s trip seems to have suited him better than the longer distances first tried. He was 4th of 15 in a decent race at Naas last time out (17 days ago), a length and a half behind runner up Is Herself About, who has since won by 8.5 lengths at Cork (last Sunday). The winner of that Naas race also ran on Sunday and was third in a much better race at Punchestown.
This race is a far weaker affair than that he faced at Naas and looks an ideal opportunity for Bank Man to get off the mark with a win at 100/30 BOG with Coral.
Uno Valoroso made a winning start to life over fences with a comfortable six lengths victory at Kelso 11 days ago. This not only makes him the horse in this race with a win ion the last year, but the only runner here with a chase victory to his name. He’s only 6 yrs old and unexposed in this sphere, so it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to expect him to improve upon his debut run and deny a 7lb rise in the weights with a follow up success here at 11/4 BOG with Stan James.His regular rider, Tony Kelly is in the saddle again today and Tony’s in good form, having a 3/9 record in the last week, as well as 2 placers.
Despite the rise in the weights, Uno Valoroso still carries less weight than all bar one of his rivals here and looks set to reconfrm his superiority over Brother Scott, who was secind behind the main selection last time out. The 7lb swing in his favour, should make this a closer contest than last time out and he has been making steady improvement over fences. He has made the frame in three of his four chase starts to date (3U22) and a win shouldn’t be too far away.
Brother Scott is priced up at 7/2 BOG and if he jumps soundly and keeps up with the pace early on, he could be the one to upset the favourite.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Bank Man / Uno Valoroso @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Bank Man / Brother Scott @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Coral)
Misty Lady / Uno Valoroso @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : SkyBet & BetVictor)
Misty Lady / Brother Scott @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet & BetVictor)