Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014
In the three years that Matt and myself have been doing SotD, you can probably count on one hand the number of times we’ve been critical of the jockeys riding our selections. The truth is that we are both full of admiration and respect for what they do, but sometimes they get it quite wrong and I can’t help but feel that’s what happened at Kempton with James Doyle on Wednesday evening.
For us to back a horse of Captain Cat’s calibre at 3/1 BOG and see him sent off at 6/5 made me feel that we were going to be having a very good day, but the horse was held up so far off the pace it was almost ridiculous. Yes, he likes to come later in the piece, but by the time James asked him to go and win the race, he’d already lost it.
End result, 4th at 6/5, a length and a half shy of winning a race he should have taken relatively comfortably. I’m not talking through my pocket here either, I’m genuinely frustrated at seeing a horse not being given the chance to fulfill its potential.
Anyway rant/moan over with, I need a winner after that episode, and so I now turn (with an open mind! :D) towards the…
Because if at first you don’t succeed, you are to try again!
Thursday’s Kempton hopeful is Knight Owl, currently priced at 5/1 BOG and to be ridden by George Baker for the James Fanshawe yard.
Let’s start with the trainer’s overall record…
Since the start of 2011, if you’d placed a £10 bet on each of Mr Fanshawe’s runners, you’d now be sitting on level stakes profits of £1852, courtesy of backing 146 winners from 925 runners at a strike rate of 15.8% with that £1852 profit equating to a 20% return on your money.
The original 925 runners can now be broken down as follows...
On the A/W : 71/358 (19.8% SR) for 54.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profit.
In handicaps : 87/491 (17.7% SR) for 75pts (+15.3% ROI)
A/W Handicaps : 43/200 (21.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+34.1% ROI) and…
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 34pts (+35.1% ROI)
He also has a particularly good record here at Kempton…
…and from the 358 overall A/W runners, the figures here at Kempton are as follows:
On the A/W : 54/246 (22% SR) for 98.3pts (+40% ROI) profit.
A/W Handicaps : 33/140 (23.6% SR) for 90.7pts (+64.8% ROI) and…
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+69.5% ROI)
He also does well in these 3yo+ handicaps under more specialised circumstances…
He’s one of a number of trainers I follow with runners fitting the following criteria : A/W 3yo+ hcps with male runners aged 3 to 7. These runners should be running at the same class or within 1 class as their last run, at the same trip or within 2 furlongs of their last run. Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has had 116 such runners with 26 winners (22.4% SR) yielding 54.8pts profit at an ROI of 47.2%.
Of these 116 runners, the breakdown fitting today’s selection is as below…
4 year olds : 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
Same class as LTO : 12/69 (17.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+27.1% ROI)
Same trip as LTO : 14/60 (23.3% SR) for 11.5pts (+19.1% ROI)
In Class 3 races : 3/13 (23.1% SR) for 3.2pts (+24.4% ROI)
Over today’s 1 mile trip : 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.4% ROI)
Here at Kempton : 20/75 (26.7% SR) for 70.9pts (+94.5% ROI)
It’s an admittedly very small sample, but 4 yr olds running at the same class and trip as LTO in a 3yp+ A/W hcp at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.4pts (+92.9% ROI) profit to date!
Jockey George Baker is no mug around this track either..
…with an excellent record totally independent of James Fanshawe that reads 77 winners from 473 (16.3% SR) handicap contests here at Kempton since the start of 2011. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 133.7pts at an ROI of 28.3%, which is very good going indeed.
And what about the horse, Knight Owl?
He was a winner in a 1m handicap at Redcar a couple of months ago and last time out he finished fourth over course and distance. He really caught the eye with the way he finished that day, getting within a length and a half of thewinner despite having far too much work to do late on. He was held up, then couldn’t get out and once out, got bumped again before running on strongly. Of the three that beat him that day, only Heisman (0.75 lengths ahead) has reappeared, but that was a winning return over the same trip at Lingfield last Friday.
If the form holds out and Knight Owl keeps out of trouble closer to the pace, then I see no reason why he can’t land his first A/W success here at Kempton. So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Knight Owl at 5/1 BOG. I’m on with Betfred, but with Coral and Betfair Sportsbook offering the same price, there’s no reason to miss out here. To see the full market…
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