Stat of the Day, 21st November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2014

Thursday proved to be a second successive disappointment under the Kempton lights, as Knight Owl showed very little of his undoubted ability.

He wasn’t boxed or hampered, he wasn’t held too far off the pace, there are few excuses to be honest. In fact George Baker had him handy enough approaching the final turn, but when the pack fanned out and the race was there to be win or lost, he had little in reserve and it petered out into a rather tame effort.

We got the value price once again, taking 7/2 about a 5/1 shot, but a 6 lengths defeat back in 8th place of 12 runners just doesn’t float my boat. I hope for and expect better from Friday’s selection, who runs in the…

7.50 Wolverhampton:

And is Memoria, a 3yr old filly trained by the in-form (4/11 in the last month) Rae Guest and she can currently be backed at 9/2 BOG.

Rae Guest is a trainer to watch in handicap races…

…because if you’d backed him blindly since the start of 2009, you’d have made a tidy profit. In this period he has saddled up 82 winners from 561 runners, a 14.6% strike rate that has produced level stakes profits of 79.7pts at an ROI of 14.2%, which is pretty good by any standards.

I, however, wouldn’t want to back so many runners, so I introduced a simple odds filter and if you only back those priced between 11/4 & 10/1, you almost halve the number of bets, but only lose 35% of the winners and a meagre 4.5% of the profit, whilst dramatically raising the ROI.

In numerical terms: 11/4 to 10/1 runners are 54/299 (18.1% SR) for 76.1pts at an ROI of 25.5%.

Rae has a good recent record here at Wolverhampton…

…with 11 winners from 35 (31.4% SR) in the last three years, yielding profits of 28.1pts (+80.4% ROI), with the best results coming in the 5/2 to 12/1 odds range, where 8 of his 18 runners (44.4% SR) have won, generating profits of 40.4pts (+224.2% ROI)

Chris Catlin is in the saddle tonight…

…and he’s quite used to spinning around Dunstall Park to good effect, having ridden 17 winners here this year alone. Those 17 winners have come from just 75 races here, making a strike rate of 22.7% and profits of 82.4pts (+109.9% ROI). Of this 17/75 record, Chris is 5/11 (45.5% SR) on board Rae Guest’s runners, achieving level stakes profits of 10.9pts (+99.1% ROI), whilst a simple 3/1 to 12/1 odds filter applied to Chris’ 75 rides here this year gives us 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) for 55.7pts (+179.7% ROI) profit.

This is a 3yo+ handicap contest…

…an area in which Rae Guest has done well in recent years, winning 34 of 243 (14% SR) since the start of 2009, recording profits of 87.4pts (+36% ROI) along the way. Female runners, like Memoria, have a 28/189 (14.8% SR ) record for 97.9pts (+51.8% ROI) record.

Memoria is just three years old…

…so she’ll take advantage of the weight for age allowance which enables her to run off a mark 3lbs lower than she would in a 3yo race. From that 28/189 stat above for female Guest runners in 3yo+ hcps, there have been 14 three year old winners from 74 (18.9% SR) and these winners have produced 48.1pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 65% and these runners can be further dissected to give us 11/41 (26.8% SR) at Class 4/5 for 40.6pts (+99.1% ROI), of which 9 winners came from the 21 (42.9% SR) sent off at odds of 2/1 to 6/1, which resulted in profits of 26pts at a superb ROI of 123.8%

Memoria is a very lightly raced and so far progressive 3yr old filly, making just her third start today and also her handicap debut, but comes here off the back of two good runs to date. She was second on debut at Windsor over 8.5f on heavy ground in mid-October, finishing five lengths behind Geordan Murphy who then reappeared at the same track and trip to score again for Stat of the Day, whilst Memoria moved here to Wolverhampton, where she was a course and distance winner a fortnight ago.

She’s still improving and comes here in as good if not better form than her rivals, she’s totally unexposed and benefits from that 3lb weight allowance. She gets the trip and has won here recently. All of this makes Memoria a good bet in my eyes and I’ve taken 9/2 BOG (win only, of course!) from those lovely people at Hills, but you can place the same bet in most places, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 7.50 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.