Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2014
In what has proved to be a frustrating mini-run of defeats on the All-Weather, Memoria was placed fourth at 9/2 at Wolverhampton on Friday evening. She didn’t run badly, but just got going a little too late for my liking and she was flying at the finish, making up ground with every stride.
She managed to close in to within a length and a half of the eventual winner, Gambino and she really could have won this one with an earlier run, but that’s how it goes sometimes.
I’m getting off the A/W in a bid to revitalise my fortunes, as we use up the last of the free hits we gained from Monday’s 5/1 winner with a shot at Saturday’s…
A Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2 miles, where I’m siding with Michael Easterby’s Lightening Rod, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG with a couple of firms.
Michael has done pretty well in NH handicaps in recent times…
Since the start of 2011, he’s had 18 winners from his 138 runners sent off at odds of 20/1 or shorter and whilst this is a fairly modest (by SotD standards!) strike rate of 8.9%, it has been instrumental in recording level stakes profits of 32.1pts at an ROI of 23.2%.
If we focus more towards today’s type of race, however, we find that he has better figures, albeit from a smaller sample size, with handicap hurdlers priced in the 5/2 to 17/2 (ie roughly in line with my strategies), where these runners are 8/38 in the last three and a bit seasons with that 21.1% strike rate yileding profits of 26.6pt (+70.1% ROI).
He has a claimer jockey on board here…
And since 2009, his hurdlers have won 10 of 35 races (28.6% SR) when ridden by a claimer and priced between 2/1 and 7/1, as he should be today. These winners have generated profits of 33.1pts at an ROI of 94.7% to date and a win today should take us past the magical 100% barrier.
That claimer jockey is Harry Bannister…
…who has had a great start to life as a jockey, winning 21 of 119 races (17.7% SR) to date, producing level stakes profits of 57.6pts (+48.8% ROI) in the process with an excellent 14/72 (19.4% SR) record this year alone, which has generated 33.9pts (+47.8% ROI) profit.
In handicap races, Harry has ridden 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) for 89.8pts (+110.8% ROI) profit, of which 13/50 (26% SR) 51.1pts (+102.2% ROI) has happened this year.
Overall, over hurdles he is 9/31 (29% SR) for 31.4pts (+101.3% ROI).
He currently claims 5lbs, but that won’t last long at the races he’s rattling up the winners, having already ridden 6 winners from just 17 rides (35.3% SR) with a 5lb claim and these wins have yielded 33.9pts profit at an ROI of 199.7%.
It’s also worth pointing out that he’s 2/5 for 13.3pts when claiming 5lbs on one of Michael Easterby’s horses.
Harry’s in good touch at the moment, winning more than his fair share of races and the yard is going quite well too and in Lightening Rod, they’ve got a decent sort here today. Harry rode him on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby over 16.5f on mid October off the back of a 10 months break and he ran really well first time up and was only headed on the run in to be beaten by a neck.
Lightening Rod then ran again at the end of last month over the same track and trip, but wasn’t to be denied that day, when he not only won by 7 lengths quite comfortably but really strung the field out. Harry Bannister was in the saddle for that run too.
The runner-up and third placed horses have both run creditably and been placed since and although this is a tougher test, he seemed to have plenty left in the locker last time out.
We’re not getting the 8/1 he won at last time, though, but if he travels as well as he normally does and gets a decent tow into the race, he could quite easily land the honours today at a pretty reasonable 100/30 BOG.
I’ve backed Lightening Rod at that price with Betfred, but you can get the same from BetVictor. He’s a shade lower in most places and as low as 5/2 with Paddy Power, so I’d advise you to…
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