Stat of the Day, 25th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2014

The 6/1 we took about Be Royale looked like pretty good value entering the final furlong, especially as she was sent off as the 11/4 favourite, but she was ultimately denied a victory by half a length. She had to overcome a poor draw and was forced out very wide on the home turn, whilst the eventual winner Malaysian Boleh was able to run right up along the rail to just edge us out.

No complaints to be had, these are the way it goes sometimes. More A/W action for Tuesday and a trip to Nottinghamshire, where I’m opposing Monday’s jockey/trainer combo in the…

3.10 Southwell:

For a 9/2 BOG bet on Reach The Beach, trained by Brendan Powell and ridden today for the second time by Ben Curtis.

Southwell is a happy hunting ground for both trainer and jockey…

Brendan Powell doesn’t actually send many of his horses here to Southwell, if I’m honest, but those that do come here seem to like the surface and run well here. In fact Brendan’s record here is 11 winners from 36 runners (30.6% SR) which has, to date, produced 70.6pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation I have to BOG) at an ROI of 196.2%. There’s clearly a couple of larger priced winners skewing the figures a little, but even those running at 10/1 or shorter are profitable to back with 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) generating 29.7pts profit at a very healthy 109.9% ROI.

Ben Curtis’ record here is also very good and he has ridden 13 winners from his 69 mounts here this year. This 18.8% strike rate is responsible for 62.9pts profit, a return equivalent to 91.2% of stakes. Once again, there are some bigger winners in there, but a closer look at those running in the 6/4 to 5/1 category shows 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for 7pts (+35% ROI) profit.

Ben’s record in handicaps here this year are also impressive with 9 wins from 46 (19.6% SR) for 57.7pts (+125.5% ROI), with 5 winners from the 20 (25% SR) runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and these runners have yielded level stakes profits of 7.2pts at an ROI of 36%.

This horse was a 25/1 C&D winner here 12 days ago…

…and is obviously much shorter in the market today. However, there is a precedent here for big priced winners to win again next time out. Since the start of 2008, horses priced between 5/2 and 9/1, running in handicaps over 5f to 1m6f at the same class or one higher than a winning run priced at 25/1 or higher last time out have one on to win 77 of 404 races (19/1% SR) and have made 136.2pts profit at an ROI of 33.7%.

Of these 404 runners, those running within 6 to 45 days of that last big-priced win have won 69 of 349 (19.8% SR) for 123.6pts (+35.4% ROI), so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise for Reach The Beach to go in again today to follow up that C&D win, where she had the re-opposing Royal Marskell four lengths behind as the runner-up.

Our runner is now 6lbs higher for that win, but the manner of the victory suggested that mightn’t be enough to stop her winning again here. Ben Curtis was riding her for the first time that day and they will probably both benefit for that experience and Reach The Beach is having a good run of from at around this trip since switching back from hurdling duties. In six runs, she has won twice and finished second on three occasions, giving a good account of herself in the defeats too.

She likes to get out quickly and there should be some early pace in the race to encourage her, but not only id he generally quick away, she stays on well too, so providing she’s not run out of it early on, she should be in the final shake-up, giving us a great chance of a return from a 1pt win bet on Reach The Beach at 9/2 BOG. That is the price I’ve taken from Betfair Sportsbook and the same is available with Ladbrokes, but they are non-BOG until 9.00am on racedays. Elsewhere 4/1 BOG is the best , as you’ll quickly see, if you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.10 Southwell 

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