Stat of the Day, 26th November 2014
Reach The Beach was friendless in the market yesterday, being sent off at 8/1, almost double our advised 9/2 price. And as it turned out the layers had it right, as she was unable to dictate terms and was badly out paced half a mile from home.
She then looked like suffering a pretty heavy defeat, but as usual, she plugged on and stayed on well to finish fourth, albeit a good 8 lengths off the winner, despite receiving weight all round.
Things aren’t quite dropping for me at the moment for SotD, but we’re not too far short/adrift and I hope to steady the ship after a rare sortie over the Irish Sea for the…
Where we’ll find a handicap debutant called Dalewari who ran a fine race to finish second here over course and distance 19 days ago, pipped in the shadow of the post to go down by a neck. That run was the third of a progressively improving profile for this 2yr old colt, who is trained by Michael Halford, my go to trainer here at Dundalk.
Michael’s my go to trainer for many, many reasons here at Dundalk, but those more pertinent to today’s selection include…
1. His overall record in handicaps here since 2008 : 80 winners from 611 = 13/1% SR for 71.5pts at an ROI of 11.7% from blind backing. With today’s jockey, Connor Hoban in the saddle, those numbers become 19/125 (15.2% SR) for 18.6pts (+14.9% ROI) and when Connor’s in receipt of his claim, 17/97 (17.5% SR) for 39.8pts (+41% ROI)
2. Follow the money! When Mick’s handicappers are priced between 15/8 & 5/1, they have a 47/189 (24.9% SR) record that has generated 38.1pts level stakes profits at a return of 20.2% above stakes invested. Under Connor Hoban’s steering there were 11 winners from 38 (29% SR) for 20.3pts (+53.3% ROI) and when using his claim, 10/29 (34.5% SR) for 24.7pts (+85% ROI).
3. His unexposed handicappers fare well here too. Since 2009 his runners in handicap races here at Dundalk with 3 or fewer previous handicap runs to their name have been successful on 34 of 210 occasions (16.2% SR), when sent off in the 2/1 to 12/1 range of odds, with the resultant 85.6pts equating to 40.8% of stakes. Of these runners, male horses have performed best, winning 20 of 109 (18.4% SR) for 47.7pts at an ROI of 43.7%.
4. Those on handicap debut have won 8 of 47 (17% SR) races for 46.5pts (+99% ROI) with males accounting for 5 winners from 22 (22.7% SR) and profits of 48.7pts at an ROI of 221.2%.
5. It’s highly likely that Dalewari will be sent off as favourite and although I’m not particularly fond of backing favourites, we should remember that plenty of them win and you can make money from them if you back the right ones!
If you backed every favourite over 7 furlongs or a mile in handicap races here at Dundalk over the last four years, you’d have landed yourself 64 winners from 227 bets, a strike rate of 28.2% with a £10 bet on each of those runners rewarding you with profits of £339, a 15% return on your investments, just from blindly backing the favourite at Betfair SP and Mr Halford’s contribution to that stat is 12 winners from 29 (41.4% SR) for 9.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit.
6. And if you just took those favourites priced between evens and 5/1, you’d have 63 winners from 220 (28.6% SR) for 39.2pts (+17.8% ROI) profit with Team Halford supplying 11 of those winners from just 28 runners (39.3% SR), contributing 8.7pts (+31% ROI) to the bottom line.
I could, of course, go on 😀 , but you get the picture, I think.
Dalewari is not only running well, but has experience of course and distance from his near miss last time out with the form from his two previous runs also looking like working out well. He’s not exactly been given a “gimme” in terms of an opening mark, but 76 less Connor Hoban’s claim is certainly workable and I think he’s a real chance here today.
That said, Mr Halford’s talents are well versed in these parts and we’ll not be getting rich today. There is however, (in my opinion, of course) still a possibility of some value in placing a 1pt win bet on Dalewari at 5/2 BOG with Paddy Power. The two major Irish firms are the first to open books on this one, so I’d advise you to…
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