Stat of the Day, 27th November 2014
Connor Hoban gave Dalewari a really good, patient ride on his handicap debut and waited until deep into the final furlong to run on and hit the front. He kept the horse handy, but covered up until the time was right, before quickly sweeping to front to stay on and score by half a length or so.
This meant yet another Dundalk winner for trainer Michael Halford who remains in imperious form and the icing on the cake came when we went to get paid out. I said 5/2 was a little on the short side for an SotD pick, but that I thought there’d still be a bit of value. Well, the SP was 7/4, meaning we got paid out at 143% of SP.
Another late A/W show in prospect for Thursday as I’ve found a consistent sort in the…
A Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over six furlongs on the polytrack, where I’ve just taken 6/1 BOG with SkyBet about Jeremy Noseda’s 3yr old filly, Mia San Triple. I know that 6/1 BOG is towards the upper end of the odds range for SotD, but I feel she’s likely to run at around 4/1 and seems a little overpriced at present.
Jeremy Noseda has a good record in these 3yo+ handicaps on the all-weather and is one of a number of trainers I keep an eye on under certain conditions. Jeremy’s runners falling in to the following categories tend to go quite well in these events : UK A/W 3yo+ handicaps, aged 3 to 7, running at two classes lower to one class higher (inclusive) to last time out and within -2 to+2 furlongs of that last run.
Since 2010 Jeremy’s record with such runners is 21 winners from 78 (36.9% SR) for 28.4pts (+36.5% ROI) profit and provides a good starting point for to dig out these numbers that are more relevant/pertinent today…
Female runners : 9/30 (30% SR) for 25.4pts (+84.6% ROI)
3 yr olds : 17/59 (28.8% SR) for 30pts (+50.8% ROI)
At same class as LTO : 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 7.4pts (+16% ROI)
and running at a trip within half a furlong (to allow for course variances) of LTO : 16/47 (34% SR) for 32.2pts (+68.4% ROI).
Mia San Triple has already proven herself to be a consistent and reliable performer, but is still relatively unexposed after just 8 starts (32321123) and has placed twice from three runs on the all-weather (placed once from two runs here). She’s been placed twice from three runs at this level and three time s from efforts over today’s trip, including two wins in the summer at nearby Windsor. She’s not concerned about having plenty of company either with a 2321 in races of more than 10 runners.
It’s no surprise to see her running well at this level/trip, since her father is Invincible Spirit, who won 7 of 12 races over today’s trip, including a group 1, two group 3’s and two listed events. That, of course, was all 12 to 15 years ago, but his offspring have a good record at this type of trip too. Since 2010, his progeny running 6 or 7 furlongs on the all-weather at Class 5 or better have won 101 of 525 races, a 19.2% strike rate yielding 216.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 41.2%.
As earlier, we can further break these figures down to give us some more relevancy in the following manner :
Female offspring are 46/215 (21.4% SR) for 168.4pts (+78.3% ROI)
His three year olds are 40/190 (21/1% SR) for 88.6pts (+46.6% ROI),
whilst those running here at Kempton are 38/215 (17.7% SR) for 110.5pts (+51.4% ROI).
Jeremy Noseda has had a quiet time of it of late with just six runners this month, Three of them have won, though, including a Listed success at here at Kempton with his last runner, 8 days ago. 3/6 shows the yard may well be coming into a bit of form, if they can get some more horses to the track, whilst more long-term, they are 13/57 in the last three months which is still pretty good.
We could have done with a better draw here for Mia San Triple, but she likes to get out and on with it early in the contest and with Spring Fling just inside her, there should at least be some early pace in her quarter of the draw.
We are compensated for this draw in the price currently available, where I was pleasantly surprised to be able to place a 1pt win on Mia San Triple at 6/1 BOG with SkyBet. All the other firms range from 9/2 to 11/2, so you should all get a decent quote from your chosen bookie, whose odds you’ll find when you…
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