Double Dutch, 27th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th November 2014

I couldn’t follow up Tuesday’s success with a repeat performance yesterday, despite Jebediah Shine running on to make all at Kempton in the 5f sprint. He’d drifted out nicely to 7/2 from our advised 2/1 early price and would have been an excellent second half of a 14.75/1 double, had Sod’s Law not reared its ugly head again a couple of hours earlier at Fontwell…

…where the best we could manage was a 6 lengths defeat in second place for Promised Wings with the well favoured Alteranthela another 35 lengths adrift as the last of four finishers. I’d expected the latter to win, if I’m honest, as he was 9lb better off than last year’s winner of the race, Volio Vincente. You can probably guess that VV won the race again, which was typical after I’d flagged it up!

Mind you, it’s a credit to jockey Tom Cannon that he got Promised Wings to complete the race, never mind finishing as runner-up. here’s the Sporting Life write-up of his run “…jumped right, reluctant and virtually ridden along throughout in rear, starting to close when went badly right 12th, stayed on approaching 3 out, 3rd next, 2nd when jumped right last, never going pace to reach winner…”

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Promised Wings: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Alteranthela: u/p at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
——————————————
Jebediah Shine: won at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Crosse Fire: u/p at 11/10 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
420 winning selections from 1458 = 28.81%
134 winning bets in 379 days = 35.36%

Stakes: 757.50pts
Returns: 835.49pts

P/L : +77.99pts (+10.59% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We’ve been in decent touch here at DD for a few weeks now and although Wednesday looks tricky, I’m confident of a fair show from the following…

12.35 Taunton:

Trainer Alex Dunn hasn’t got the biggest string of horses (just 166 runners in 2 years), but her horses are to be noted when there’s a little bit of money for them, as she’s 9/31 (29% SR) for 19.4pts (+62.7% ROI) profit with all her runners priced between 2/1 and 11/2. She’s 4 from 15 with her hurdlers here at Taunton (4 from 9 below 10/1) with one of those wins coming from today’s runner Arrayan.

Arrayan has won four times in and around today’s trip and loves the mud and conditions look ideal for him today, despite lugging joint top weight. He has won 4 of 21 hurdles races, but all four wins have come from just 11 starts under the following conditions: right handed track, 2m or 2m1f on soft or heavy ground, including one here last year. He recently had a sharpener on the All-Weather so should be fit today and looks reasonable value at 7/2 BOG with Betbright.

My slight preference, however, lies with Ascendant, who is clearly the pick of the weights based on official ratings and is a three time winner over hurdles. He produced some decent handicap performances in the summer, most notably when beaten by just a neck at Huntingdon three starts ago in a much better race than this. The winner of that race then stepped up two grades and 10lbs in the ratings to win by two lengths at Fontwell.

This is, in all honesty, a pretty poor affair and if Ascendant runs to his ability (rated 1lb higher than Arrayan, but carrying 10lbs less) then he could well get back on the scoreboard at 5/2 BOG.

*

4.55 Kempton:

Trainer Ed Vaughan has a 20% strike rate over the last four years when dropping horses in class on the A/W and also has a decent record in these 3yo+ handicap contests and will fancy his chances of landing a winner at Betbright’s 21/1o BOG with Flamborough Breeze here today. The horse is admittedly on a fairly long losing run, consisting of 18 defeats since cmpleting a hat-trick of course and distance wins here at Kempton exactly 21 months ago.

She is, however, a consistent performer on the A/W making the frame in 50% of her runs and she now drops in class after a decent effort over C&D four weeks ago. She was third that day, beaten by a length and a quarter. She now runs off 62 which is lower than her last winning mark and with Luke Morris on board, this could be a welcome return to winning ways for Flamborough Breeze.

But she’ll have to beat the hat-trick seeking Cadmium to do that. Each of this 3yr old progressive filly’s last three outings have been here at Kempton, so she’s familiar with the track and acts well on the surface. She was second over course and distance six weeks ago, before dropping down a furlong to 7f to win by half a length, but doing her best late on meant a swift return to today’s one mile trip at the end of October. She won by almost two lengths that day to complete three good runs here inside 15 days and having had a four week break, should be suitably refreshed.

7lb claimer Leigh-Anne Avery is once more in the saddle and this will be the sixth time she’s ridden Cadmium after finishes of 26211 and this partnership is priced up at 3/1 BOG to claim their hat-trick.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Ascendant / Flamborough Breeze @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Ascendant / Cadmium @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Arrayan / Flamborough Breeze @ 12.95/1 (7/2 & 21/10 : Betbright)
Arrayan / Cadmium @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Betbright)