Double Dutch, 28th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th November 2014

We got off to a good start at lunchtime down at Taunton, as Ascendant was a pretty comfortable winner, getting home some 14 lengths ahead of the runner-up and our second pick Arrayan, who had drifted out to 6/1, as the money came in for the winner who was a pretty warm and deserved favourite come the off time. This also meant we landed another forecast, which paid out at 10.59/1

We were, however, unfortunately denied a double, as the tea-time race at Kempton failed to even provide us with a placer. Flamborough Breeze was a popular selection (2/1 fav!), but his 4th place of 9 runners was the best we could manage. He ran better than the bare result would suggest: he was slow away and dwelt in the rear before running on to only lose by a length and a half, having encountered a couple of traffic issues in the home straight.

But lose he did, as did Cadmium, whose hat-trick effort petered out disappointingly late on and she ended up a further 3 places and 2.5 lengths down the filed, beating just two home.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Ascendant: won at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Alteranthela: 2nd at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
——————————————
Flamborough Breeze: u/p at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Cadmium: u/p at 4/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
421 winning selections from 1462 = 28.80%
134 winning bets in 380 days = 35.26%

Stakes: 759.50pts
Returns: 835.49pts

P/L : +75.99pts (+10.01% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Friday’s selections look a little (OK, a lot!) like this…

2.30 Doncaster:

Team Reveley (trainer Keith & jockey James) have both been in good form individually and collectively this season and Shadrack looks their best prospect of a winner today. This horse will be looking to get back to winning ways after being denied a hat trick at Aintree last time out. He was 3rd of 9 that day, but wasn’t disgraced, finishing withing 3 lengths of the runner-up and former group race winner Big Mick.

Shadrack runs well here at Doncaster, will get the trip and the going and tends to perform best when carrying some weight (2 wins and 4 places from 7 when carrying over 11-6). That Aintree run came after a break of 24 weeks, so he might just have needed the run too and should go better here today at 9/2 BOG.

I would, however, have thought Big Water was the one to beat here. He’s had an excellent 12 months, having finished 2nd at Musselburgh on his last effort over hurdles in December, before being sent chasing where his form reads 23421. He was only touched off by half a length at Hexham two starts ago, but finished over 5 lengths clear of subsequent dual winner Little Boy Boru. He then moved on to Carlisle last time out, where he not only won by just over two lengths, he was 3 lengths clear of the promising (former Group standard hurdler) chaser Warden Hill, who has sine won confortably at Fontwell.

If the form holds out from that Carlisle race, where Shantou Breeze was a late faller when beaten, but has since won, then I’d expect Big Water to defy a 5lb rise in weights to take this at 9/4 BOG.

*

3.15 Newbury:

Port Melon has been withdrawn from this one, leaving just four to go to post, but that could pave the way for Tea for Two to make it two from two  (sorry! :D) over hurdles and continue his excellent realtionship with 7lb claimer Lizzie Kelly. Lizzie doesn’t get too many rides (just 28 since TFT’s debut in mid-April), but has ridden this horse on all five previous starts finishing 12211. Two Class 6 bumper wins sandwiched two really good efforts in bumpers here at Newbury, where the team achieved tow runner-up finishes in decent quality races, beaten by just over 3 lengths in a Listed event and then by a length at Class 2.

The horse made  winning start to hurdling at Kempton last month, beating Nicky Henderson’s 135-rated My Wigwam or Yours by two lengths, which isn’t a bad benchmark to start from. This is obviously a step up in class, but in the current form being shown, it would be hard to ignore the chances of Tea For Two here today at 2/1 BOG (Betfair SB)

The danger must surely come from Thomas Brown, also similarly priced around the 2/1 BOG mark. Harry fry’s horses are in really good nick at the moment and he’s well amongst the winner of late. This horse was also 2 from 4 in bumpers before a winning start over hurdles. That debut hurdles win at Exeter last time out was a good effort off the back of a 227 day absence from racing and in a race that was probably better than the one won by Tea For Two.

Thomas Brown is a former point winner, so his jumping should be sound and he has no issues over trip and going conditions either, making him a real contender here.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Big Water / Tea for Two @ 8.90/1 (23/10 & 2/1 : Betbright)
Big Water / Thomas Brown @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Shadrack / Tea for Two @ 15.50/1 (9/2 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
Shadrack / Thomas Brown @ 15.50/1 (9/2 & 2/1 : Bet365, Boylesports & Ladbrokes)