Double Dutch, 29th November 2014
If yesterday did anything, it certainly reminded us of how tight/fine the margins can be between winning and losing, as we came up a little short and walked away empty handed without even a single winner.
In race 1 at Doncaster, we had to settle for 2nd and 4th of 6 runners in what proved a terrific contest. Unfortunately our pick Shadrack was finally headed with less than 50 yards to run, eventually going down by a neck.
And it was another fairly close defeat at Newbury 45 minutes later, with finishes of 2nd and 3rd in a 4 horse race. There might have been a small field but it was another good spectacle over 2m5f on testing ground. All four runners came over the last hurdle almost in a line and they all finished within 7.5 lengths from first to last.
Unfortunately for our runners, Out Sam was smartest away from the last flight and quickly opened up an unassailable lead, although our pick Thomas Brown made a desperate, but unsuccessful bid to close him down.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Shadrack: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Big Water: u/p at 6/1 (adv 9/4)
Thomas Brown: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Tea For Two: u/p at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
421 winning selections from 1466 = 28.72%
134 winning bets in 381 days = 35.17%
P/L : +73.99pts (+9.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last DD for the week/month, so I’m hoping to close on a winning note with these…
Kilmurvy doesn’t win enough races for my/his trainer’s liking, but rarely runs a bad race. He has finished 324235 in his six races over the last year and never seems to be beaten by far in races that haven’t quite suited him. He likes the softer ground that will be on offer today and he’s better at these longer trips, but rarely seems to get the two together. The last time he ran in similar conditions was at Ascot back in February and even then that was at a higher grade than today.
He was beaten by just 3.5 lengths that day over 3m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was 3L behind the runner-up Rydon Pines, who then ran in the Alfred Bartlett at Cheltenham, before placing at Exeter and winning a Class 2 at Chepstow. If he can run to anything like that Ascot performance, then Kilmurvy should be taking this at 11/4 BOG, especially with question marks about all his rivals.
Of those rivals, I think I’m going to side with Lower Hope Dandy, who has won two of his seven starts to date and also been placed on two occasions (4219341). He’s very lightly raced and has done most of his running on soft ground or worse. He was last seen winning easily at Cheltenham in a 3 mile hurdle, but here’s his own question mark, that run was back in April 2103 and he hasn’t raced for almost 600 days now.
That break doesn’t mean he can’t/won’t run well here today, though and the 16 horses he beat that day have since ran 75 times between them, clocking up 13 wins ( 17.3% SR) with a further 13 being placed. These runners included Willows Saviour who has since won all three of his subsequent races, including a grade 3 event last time out. I am taking his fitness on trust, but he represents a yard who know what they’re doing and who have a decent record when bringing horses back off a long absence, making Lower Hope Dandy my alternate pick at 11/4 BOG.
Like yesterday, our second contest comes from Newbury and features five horses that ran against each other in the Paddy Power Chase a fortnight ago at Cheltenham, Of those five, Monetaire fared best, finishing a very respectable third place on his UK racing debut. He’s no newcomer to racing, though, as he has stacks of decent form on soft (and worse!) ground in France prior to the switch to these shores. He’ll probably come on again for having had the outing, which was his first in 11 months and I’d expect another big run today.
Monetaire is 3lbs higher today and with Ut Majeur Aulmes and Next Sensation dropping a pound and 2lbs respectively, he’ll have to work a little harder to stay ahead of them, but he did beat them by 12 and 54 lengths respectively and a s such, should still be ahead of them in very similar conditions and this could be a first UK win at 11/4 BOG.
The one I fancy to push him all the way and possibly beat him is Solar Impulse. Both his trainer, Paul Nicholls and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies are in imperious form at present and Paul’s runners always seem to go well here at Newbury (29% strike rate in chases here and 10 winners from 32 in the last 2 years) pointing to another good chance today. The horse is a decent performer and was a Grade standard runner over hurdles who switched to chasing in October of this year and was only beaten by half a length on his first crack at fences. He did, however finish 21 lengths clear of 139-rated Turn Over Sivola that day.
Solar Impulse has had one more run over fences since then, when he once again beat Turn Over Sivola on his way to a first chase win at Wetherby four weeks ago. Having signed off his spell over hurdles with a win, he is 121 in his last three outings and is clearly in good nick and as a 4yr old in an open age handicap, his 7lb allowance should come in really handy in his bid to win this at 100/30 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Kilmurvy / Monetaire @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Kilmurvy / Solar Impulse @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Lower Hope Dandy / Monetaire @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Lower Hope Dandy / Solar Impulse @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)