Stat of the Day, 29th November 2014
Comeonginger didn’t seem to enjoy conditions underfoot at Newbury on Friday, where the course rode more like heavy than soft. So much so, that the official going added heavy in places later in the day.
As it was, our runner toiled away and could have been forgiven for throwing the towel in, but jockey Trevor Whelan did everything he could to keep the horses going and despite a couple of poor jumps late on, managed to complete in third place at the same 3/1 advice we’d given.
November is always a tough month, that’s why I take a holiday for part of it! But this November has proved very difficult indeed and I’m actually pretty pleased to enter the last SotD of the month just 2.8pts in arrears.
I know we all want to make profit and I’m certainly trying my best, but betting is cyclical and SotD makes money long-term, so we just need a little patience sometimes.
That said, I do have one last throw of the dice for November and a winner would see us wipe our faces, of course. So, that last shot of the month will come in the…
Where I’ve got this nagging feeling that Vif Argent is over priced at the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from Bet365.
His trainer, David Pipe is in blistering form at present and his last 14 days of racing have seen him clock up an impressive 13 winners from just 52 runners, with even better figures of 5 from 18 in the last week alone, including a nice 10/1 winner at Newbury yesterday, so they’re not all short priced jollies.
It’s also very interesting to see Vif Argent entered here, as David rarely sends chasers up to North Wales and since the start of 2009, this one will be just David’s 12th chaser to grace the Bangor-on-Dee turf. Mr Pipe has forgotten more about this game than I’ll ever learn, so he must have reasons for being a stranger in these parts, perhaps it’s the weather?
I only mention this, because 5 of the previous 11 (45.5% SR) chasers here at Bangor were winners and they generated 13.7pts at an ROI of 124.6%. All five winners were priced at 15/2 or shorter, where the record reads 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+208.8% ROI).
David’s got a claimer jockey, Michael Heard, on board today and the yard does well when using these claimers and in the last four years their record with claimer jockeys on handicap chasers is 26 winners from 166 (15.7% SR) for 57.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit.
Once again, the best results are obtained with those running at 15/2 or shorter where 20 of 74 (27% SR) runners were victorious, producing profits of 28.7pts (+38.8% ROI). Those jockeys, like Michael today, who were claiming 7lbs, won 6 races from 24 (25% SR) for 8.8pts at a healthy ROI of 36.6%.
I also like to keep an eye out for Mr Pipe’s male chasers running over what I term mid-range contests and more specifically those running in races of 2m5f to 3m2f and carrying 10 stone 8lbs or more. If you backed every such runner over the last 7yrs that was priced in the 5/2 to 9/1 price range, you’d have made a profit every single year and you’d have found yourself 112 winners from 601 runners (18.6% SR).
Here at Geegeez, we review plenty of commercial systems and we declare results to a £10 level stake, so if we apply that to the above, you’d have wagered just over £6,000 in seven years (it’s only £70 a week if you break it down! 😀 ) , but your profits would now stand at £1501, a handsome 25% return on your money.
As for today, in particular,Vif Argent has won two of his six outings this year and was a runner-up once too. The going at Bangor today is said to be soft (heavy in places), it won’t get better than soft today, but it might well get heavy and this would be fine for our runner. He won his only race on soft ground to date and he has one win from two starts on heavy . He’s by Dom Alco, whose offspring have a great record over fences and also in the mud and our pick is very much at home in these smaller fields with a record of 112 in races of 7 runners or less.
And that’s how I’m closing out the month, with a 1pt win bet on Vif Argent (quicksilver in French!) at 5/1 BOG with Bet365. Other bookies are offering a range from 7/2 to 9/2 and the latter of those prices still wouldn’t be a bad bet in my opinion Your preferred bookies’ price can be found when you…
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