Double Dutch, 1st December 2014
Saturday was a very good, if slightly dramatic day for us here at Double Dutch HQ, as we managed to find another two winners to make it a fourth winning Saturday in a row. All four of our selections attracted money and taking the 10.00am prices certainly helped our cause.
Lots of drama at Bangor in race 1, where Lower Hope Dandy (2/1 from 11/4) looked nailed on to win, approaching the final hurdle 10 lengths clear.But he went straight through last, seemingly handing the race to Serienshock who was around 10 lengths clear of our other pick, Kilmurvy (7/4f from 11/4).
However, Serienshock seemed distracted (possibly by our faller) and jumped sharply to the right at the last hurdle and unseated his rider, handing the race ultimately to our pick, Kilmurvy.
Race 2 over at Newbury was less dramatic, though, as our runners filled the first two positions with Monetaire (2/1f from 11/4) leading Solar Impulse (9/4 from 10/3) home by a couple of lengths with the nearest challenger a further 10 lengths back.
All of which meant a BOG double at 13.06/1, equivalent to 180% of SP double, priced at 7.25/1. We also got the added bonus of a £7.60 exacta at Newbury.
Finally, before moving on to today’s action, the results block below looks pretty healthy after a good run in November and as today is the 1st December, it’s time to give a quick overview of the last month.
In November we had 25 days action = 50 races.
2 non-runners meant we had 98 selections.
We found 31 winners over the month, 31.63% of our runners won and we had the winner in 62% of our featured races.
We made 32.82pts profit from a 50pt outlay at an ROI of 65.64%.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Kilmurvy: won at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Lower Hope Dandy: fell at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Monetaire: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Solar Impulse: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 10/3)
The Exacta paid £7.60 here.
Results to date:
421 winning selections from 1466 = 28.72%
134 winning bets in 381 days = 35.17%
P/L : +79.02pts (+10.35% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
And whilst November was a really good month for us, there’s no time to rest on our laurels and we start again with a clean slate today. The cards look a little tough as usual for a Monday, but I’m hoping to get December off to a good start with these…
Cove was unlucky to run into a decent sort (Dark Spirit) 9 days ago, as she’d entered that race in decent form and looking like she was ready to win. The bare result of that run at Ascot just shows an 11-lengths defeat, but he doesn’t tell you that she was beating horses rated up to 10lbs better than her.She’s now 322 in her last three outings and her mark of 110 is unchanged from last effort, giving her a fighting chance here. her trainer, Nick Gifford has a good record here, Cove likes the trip and the soft ground and is building up a good rapport with jockey Charlie Deutsch and conditions look ideal for her to score here at 3/1 BOG…
…but for the presence of Southway Star, who rattled up four wins on the bounce over fences last month and looks interesting returning to hurdling. As you’d expect, her mark over fences has rocketed of late, she won off 81 at the start of that run of wins with her last effort coming off 102. She runs off 112 today, but that’s still 7lbs lower than her least run over hursdles and just 2lbs higher than her last win over the smaller obstacles, so she could be in at the weights here and obviously comes here in cracking form. She’s 7/27 over hurdles and will absolutely love the conditions. So, if things go to plan, she’s our winner here at 7/4 BOG, but I’m more than happy with Cove as backup.
I nominated Be Royale as my Stat of the Day horse last Monday (see here) and she was only beaten by half a length carrying a penalty and coming from stall 11, beaten by a runner from trap 1. She’s now 2lbs lower for her return effort over C&D and has the considerable presence of Luke Morris in the saddle to help her along today. She’s got the inside draw this time and with those stats from SotD still being valid re: the trainer’s record here, his record in open age handicaps and with quick returners, Be Royale looks a good bet at 2/1 BOG and almost qualified as SotD for the second successive Monday!
As for the rest, it could all get quite tight, but I’ve a slight leaning towards Penny Garcia, who is raised 3lbs for her win at Catterick last month, but is dropped in class for her Wolverhampton debut. Although she won on good to soft last time out and has 2 soft ground wins to her name, she also has good form on good to firm ground, so if she adapts to the “feel” of tapeta, going conditions shouldn’t stop her running well.
She has won at this trip before and she runs off 69 here (she’s 3/5 in the 60’s) for Tim Easterby, who has a good record on the A/W in general, especially in 3yo+ handicaps and also has a strike rate better than 1-in-6 here at Wolverhampton. We are, of course, placing some trust in Penny Garcia “getting” the surface on just her second A/W run, but we do get compensated by her 8/1 BOG ticket from Betbright (2pts lower elsewhere!)
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Southway Star / Be Royale @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Betbright)
Southway Star / Penny Garcia @ 23.75/1 (7/4 & 8/1 : Betbright)
Cove / Be Royale @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Boylesports)
Cove / Penny Garcia @ 35/1 (3/1 & 8/1 : Betbright)