Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2014

No joy from Divine Rule at Kempton on Monday afternoon, as he lacked the finishing speed required to take the race. He was held up as I’d expected him to be and he looked like he had every chance on the inside as they approached the final furlong.

He had to be ridden inside that last furlong with a view to producing a finish, but looked rather one paced and could only finish 2.75 lengths away from the winner. I’d got on at 4/1 and was happy enough to do so and whilst the 3/1 overnight favourite pretty much held his price, ours doubled to a huge 8/1.

I know some of you decided an E/W bet would be in order and I’d have agreed at those odds, but our mount even surrendered third place in the closing stages to finish an unsatisfactory fourth. Looking for better on Tuesday in the…

3.40 Wolverhampton:

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A 1m6f, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap on the tapeta where Dean Ivory’s 4 yr old filly Duchess of Gazeley is priced up at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power.

Dean’s record here at Wolverhampton over the last five years is decent enough and makes a good starting point with 14 winners from 94 (14.9% SR) yielding 35pts (+37.1% ROI) level stakes profits to date. Those running on the 6/4 to 12/1 price bracket are 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 50.5pts (+91.8% ROI).

As today’s race is a handicap, we should look at Dean;s figures in handicap contests here at Dunstall Park and we see he has saddled up 13 winners from 75 (17.3% SR) for 49pts profit at an ROI of 65.3% with those runners in that same 6/4 to 12/1 bracket once again performing best with 12 winners from 49 (24.5% SR) for 51.5pts (+105% ROI). Clearly, Dean is a trainer to keep an eye on here at Wolverhampton.

Duchess of Gazeley drops down in class today, a ploy/tactic that has proved successful for Mr Ivory in the past. Over the last four years, Dean’s figure with handicappers dropping down a grade is 20 winners from 137 runners, a 14.6% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 79.9pts at an ROI of 58.3%, which are pretty good numbers. Those running at odds of 5/2 to 10/1 have won 15 of 69 (21.7% SR) races for 34.8pts (+50.4% ROI) profit, whilst those dropping into today’s Class 4 level are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 33.3pts (+151.3% ROI).

He also generally does well in these A/W 3yo+ handicap events, when running horses aged 3 to 7 at the same class or 1 lower than LTO and at a trip no more than 2 furlongs difference from last time (above or below). Dean’s runners fitting those criteria have won 25 of 172 (14.5% SR) of their races in the last five years and they have generated 38.8pts profit at an ROI of 22.6%.

From this 25/172 stat, we can be more relevant to today’s contest by seeing that 4yr olds are 13/76 (17.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+41.4% ROI), runners at Wolverhampton are 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 42.4pts (+117.8% ROI), those priced between 7/4 & 8/1 are 20/85 (23.5% SR) for 39.7pts (+46.7% ROI), whilst those stepping up in trip by 2 furlongs are 3/16 (18.75% SR) for 3.44pts (+21.5% ROI) profit.

Duchess of Gazeley ran really well in nine handicaps from June 2013 to March 2014, before understandably going off the boil and producing a couple of below par efforts before being rested for six months. She then made her reappearance at Newmarket a month ago and was well beaten if truth be told. But she’ll certainly have needed the run after the layoff and now runs off a mark lower than some of her better performances last year.

Duchess of Gazeley will need to improve upon her last run, but if she gets aback anywhere near last season’s form, we should be cashing in with a 1pt win bet at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but you can, as always…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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