Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2014

Another poor result for us on Tuesday leaves me still scratching about for a bit of form/consistency. Duchess of Gazeley had attracted plenty of support as our 4/1 BOG advice was whittled down to an SP of 11/4, having been as low as 9/4 at one point. She broke smartly as expected and led until the 3 pole and that’s where the good news ends.

She then seemed to go into reverse, weakening dramatically to such an extent that she eventually trooped home last of the 9 runners some 35 lengths adrift of the winner. Picking another loser wasn’t helped by the fact that the other two horses on my short list were winners, but hopefully this is a bottoming out and the recovery mission will start in earnest with Wednesday’s selection in the…

7.20 Kempton:

Where John Fahy will attempt to ride Eve Johnson Houghton’s 9/2 BOG New Rich to victory in a race they won together last year, the type of contest in which the trainer excels.

In the last four years, backing all of Eve’s A/W handicappers would have made you a nice steady profit as her 23 winners from 181 runners (12.7% SR) would have netted you 33.1pts profit and an 18.1% return on your money and whilst the profit here at Kempton isn’t quite as good, the strike rate remains around the same mark, as 15 winners from 116 runners (12.9% SR) has yielded 10.5pts (+9% profit), which is still better than a poke in the eye.

If we applied a simple 12/1 cap to Eve’s A/W handicappers and thus eliminating the longshot punts, we get 22 winners from 117 (18.8% SR) for 72.4pts (+61.9% ROI) profit and these are the kind of numbers we look for in an SotD pick. A closer inspection of the Kempton runners above shows plenty of longer priced losers and if we just backed those here who were priced at 9/1 or shorter, we keep all 15 winners from above, but remove 60 losing bets, giving us a 15/56 (26.8% SR) record and 70.5pts (+125.9% ROI) profit, which is much more palatable.

New Rich has a career record of just 3 wins from 26, which isn’t much to crow about, but he is 3 from 10 here at Kempton and his record over course and distance reads 3 wins and 2 places from just 9 outings, so these are clearly his optimum conditions. He won this race off a mark of 59 last year after a previous C&D win off 55 and he has subsequently scored off 61 yet he comes here approaching some decent form (placed in his last two runs and only narrowly beaten last time out) and running off  a very workable mark of 58, a pound lower than last year.

Last year’s winning jockey John Fahy is back in the saddle again and the fact that New Rich was only narrowly (0.5L) beaten at Lingfield 11 days ago makes him just qualify for one of my quick returner microsystems. Eve Johnson Houghton is just one of a bunch of trainers that I keep an eye out for sending runners back out quickly after a win or narrow defeat. In Eve’s case, the criteria are ran within 11 days and either won or was placed and within 4 lengths of victory last time out.

Since 2009, Eve is 23 from 105 (21.9% SR) with such horses and has generated 62pts profit at an ROI of 59% with the average winner priced just above the 6/1 mark. On the All-Weather those figures are 8/20 (40% SR) for 33.4pts (+167% ROI), whilst Kempton shows 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) for 27.5pts which is an incredible 211.3% of stakes invested, albeit off a small sample size.

In the last three year’s Eve’s quick returners when sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 13 of 41 (31.7% SR) races and have produced level stakes profits of some 42.3pts (+103.2% ROI), whilst here at Kempton it’s three winners from five for 18.8pts (+376.9% ROI)

Track and trip clearly hold no fears for New Rich and he gets on well enough with jockey John Fahy, he’s weighted to win again and I’m surprisingly pleased to be able to place my 1pt win bet on New Rich at 9/2 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook. You can also get the same price from Bet365, if you’d prefer to use them, whilst the rest of the market can be found when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Kempton 

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Here is today’s racecard.