Double Dutch, 3rd December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd December 2014

At 13/8 & 11/4, we had two winners yesterday, that might have only combined to give us a modest double at 8.84/1 and a 2.92pts profit, but it’s always good to get the first win of the month under the belt, so to speak.

It was a quickfire back to back lunchtime special yesterday with Master Dee taking the 12.30 race more comfortably than the official margin of 1.5 lengths might suggest. He was never really troubled, despite the runner up putting in a big effort, whilst Zermatt showed signs of a return to form before weakening in the latter stages.

And then just fifteen minutes later, Sue Smith’s Ballymoat put the race to bed a long way from home. He led from 4 out and was clear by 3 out. He could even afford a mistake at the last (he did fall at the last fence on his previous run when leading!) and still win by a good 8 lengths and pulling away.

Jewellery was a bit of a disappointment back in fourth place, emptying out pretty quickly once headed 4 from home and eventually finished 4th, beaten by 28 lengths. The other horse I considered, Gold Ingot, was the 5/2 favourite and runner-up.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Master Dee: won at 6/4 (adv 13/8)
Zermatt: u/p at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Ballymoat: won at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Jewellery: u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)

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Results to date:
423 winning selections from 1474 = 28.70%
135 winning bets in 383 days = 35.25%

Stakes: 767.50pts
Returns: 847.44pts

P/L : +79.94pts (+10.42% ROI)


I’d now like to continue from we left off yesterday!

1.00 Lingfield:

An interesting race here, with four LTO winners coming to the party in a field of just six runners, but the one I think they’ll have to beat is Biting Bullets, who looks at the top of his game at present. He was beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton three starts ago and now comes here seeking a hat-trick of wins after comfortably winning by four lengths at Kempton on Monday. He’s well in under a 6lb penalty and although this is his first crack at the mile trip, the way he finished on Monday suggested he could make that step up and win again here at 15/8 BOG.

I then don’t expect there to be too much between Marmalad and Greatest Journey, but at more than double the latter’s price, there’s more value in siding with Marmalad, who is the only runner here who has won at this track and/or over this distance previously, so he has little to prove, after winning over course and distance here a fortnight ago. He was pretty comfortable when getting home by the best part of two lengths that day on what was only his second effort on the A/W (runner-up at Wolverhampton) and his Lingfield debut and I’d expect him to go well again at 4/1 BOG.


1.40 Ludlow:

The market seems to think this will be a two-horse race between Mystery Drama and Pass The Time and bar one of these girls falling over, I’d expect them to be the first two home.

Mystery Drama has decent ground speed demonstrated in two back to back wins over 1m4f on the A/W last year, which she then followed up with a win on her hurdling debut over today’s trip on similarly good to soft ground at Leicester, before being pitched into a Listed event at Aintree, where she was runner-up to subsequent Grade 3 winner Gitane du Berlais and she was 8 lengths clear of Poetic verse who has since won three times, including once at Class 2, one level higher than this contest here.

Mystery Drama has been a fairly unlucky runner-up on two of her last three runs, firstly hitting the front too soon and idling late on, getting caught and then last time out, she was left with far too much to do on heavy ground at Leicester at fortnight ago. Better ground and hopefully a lesson learned should do the trick today and a 5/2 BOG (Stan James) win could very well be on the cards.

Pass The Time will, of course, ensure she doesn’t have it all her own way, despite her form not looking great on paper (798 since winning at Doncaster in February), but she has been running at a much higher grade than this. She was 6.5 lengths behind Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival (Gr 2), then ran in a grade 3 at Aintree three weeks later. She was then off the track for 28 weeks before reappearing at Cheltenham in mid-October, where she clearly needed the run.

This race is a much poorer standard than the usual type of race she contests and the pipe-opener as well as the drop in trip could help Pass The Time pick up the winning habit again at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Biting Bullets / Mystery Drama @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Biting Bullets / Pass The Time @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Boylesports & Paddy Power)
Marmalad / Mystery Drama @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Marmalad / Pass The Time @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : generally)

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