Double Dutch, 4th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th December 2014

No joy yesterday, folks, as the almost inevitable happened in race 1 where I discarded the wrong one of the three possibles I’d identified. I did have the first three home, but that’s of little consolation really. Greatest Journey beat Biting Bullets by three lengths with Marmalad the same distance further back. The Trifecta paid £10.00, but I din’t back that either!

This all rendered the race at Ludlow 40 minutes later, fairly irrelevant, but it was nice to have least selected the winner and we’d got on at 5/2 about a 13/8 success, but that proved to be the highlight of the DD day with Mystery Drama beaten by a good 7 lengths or so.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Biting Bullets: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Marmalad: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Pass The Time: won at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Mystery Drama: 4th at 3/1 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
424 winning selections from 1478 = 28.69%
135 winning bets in 384 days = 35.16%

Stakes: 769.50pts
Returns: 847.44pts

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P/L : +77.94pts (+10.13% ROI)


This is where I’m at for Thursday…

3.10 Leicester:

Ballydague Lady is in red hot form of late (33211) and it’s unsurprising to see her turned back out just two days after a fairly comfortable win at Sedgefield on Tuesday. She’s penalised 7lbs for that latest win, but with her jockey taking 10lbs off, she’s effectively 3lbs better off today. The going won’t be anywhere near as testing at it was in the North East and I expect her to give another good show today and providing this race doesn’t come a little too soon, she could go in again at 13/5 BOG (Betbright)

The main threat should be from Easy Beesy, who finished last winter’s hurdling campaign with finishes of 1216, before a 9 month break, a change of trainer and a switch to fences. That return run at Lingfield three weeks ago was going really well on his yard debut, until he unseated his rider three from home when a couple of lengths clear and travelling nicely.

He will come on for the experience of the bigger obstacles and for having had the run after a long lay-off and providing there’s no ill-effects or lack of confidence, he could take this at 7/4 BOG. He represents the formidable Greatrex/Sheehan partnership, who are in great form again and you can be sure the horse will have been well schooled if nothing else.


3.30 Market Rasen:

There’s not much standout form on offer here, but Qasser ended last season’s campaign well finishing 3223, before a couple of liveners over 10 furlongs in May. He then rested before returning to demolish and spread out a field of 8 at Plumpton a month ago. he won by 21 lengths that day and if could well have been double that if he’d wanted to.The third placed horse was a further 15 lengths behind and so it went on down the line.

He has been hit with a massive hike in weight, but looking at this field today, I’m not entirely sure that he’s not still well in at the weights and I’d expect him to be in the shake-up if nothing else and warrants interest at 5/2 BOG. That win was on heavy ground, so easier conditions here will help his cause and he has 1 win and 4 places from 7 runs on soft ground, so that’s also in his favour here.

Make Me A Fortune, however, might make a real contest of it and he comes here with course knowledge, having won once and placed once from his three runs here. This is his third effort at today’s trip, having been a winner in a bumper over today’s course and distance and the runner-up in a hurdles race at Sedgefield last Boxing Day. He has been placed 5 times from 7 efforts on soft ground, so the conditions shouldn’t be an issue and he arrives here on the back of a narrow defeat last time out.

He was beaten at Huntingdon 12 days ago over  a trip half a furlong shorter than today where he was staying on well and closing on the leader, only for the line to come too soon and hand him a defeat by just three parts of a length. He had Rascal 17 lengths behind him that day, with the latter going to make all in a 14 lengths victory at Southwell on Tuesday. So, if Qasser buckles under the added weight today, I’d expect Make Me A Fortune to take this at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Easy Beesy / Make Me A Fortune @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Easy Beesy / Qasser @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Boylesports)
Ballydague Lady / Make Me A Fortune @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Ballydague Lady / Qasser @ 11.43/1 (51/20 & 5/2 : Betbright)

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