Stat of the Day, 4th December 2014
A strange, but very profitable night for me at Kempton last night. I had one of those evening where everything I backed was winning, but with each victory, the spectre of Sod’s law loomed ever larger in my mind. And when Baltic Prince won the penultimate race on the card after coming very close to being the SotD pick, I thought it might be another of those days where I went with the wrong one, such has my luck/form been of late.
I hadn’t, of course, factored in how gutsy New Rich proved to be and also what an absolutely brilliant ride John Fahy gave the horse. Much closer to the back than the front of the final bend, they swept round the outside picking off runners as they went, before hitting the front inside the final furlong to score by a length.
John Fahy judged it to perfection and I breathed a sigh of relief. Even better news came with a 9/2 BOG payout on a 7/2 winner and so today it’s almost same time, same place as we tackle the…
And an interesting-looking 3/1 BOG bet on Roger Charlton’s lightly-raced, 3 yr old handicap debutant Chauvelin, who steps up in trip from 8.5 furlongs to a mile and a half to compete in this Class 5, 3yo+ handicap off a reasonable opening mark of 67.
Chauvelin is by Sir Percy and is a brother to Van Percy who has been more than useful in winning Class 2 handicap over 1m4f and 1m6f, suggesting that this step up in trip will suit today. In fact, you can just back all Sir Percy’s offspring and make a nice profit. His progeny have so far won 143 of their 1102 (13% SR) races and have generated level stakes profits of 272pts at an ROI of 24.7%.
Those running over 10 to 13 furlongs are 60/370 (16.2% SR) for 470.4pts (+127.1% ROI), of which there is a 28/95 (29.5% SR) record at odds of 9/4 to 5/1, with associated profit of 44.1pts (+46.4% ROI).
Sir Percy’s offspring have also won 45 of the 226 races (19.9% SR) off an official mark ranging from 60 to 100 and these winners have amassed 510.4pts profit to date; an ROI of 225.9%. More realistically for our purposes, those priced between 9/4 & 5/1 are 21 from 68 (30.9% SR) for 36.6pts at an ROI of 53.8%
Today is Chauvelin‘s fourth start, after three maiden contests where his record reads 265 over inadequately short trips, but three year olds who were unplaced last time out and are now running in handicap races of 1m3.5f to 1m4.5f, stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs have won 91 times from 592 attempts (15.4% SR) since the start of 2011. These 91 winners have helped punters to register level stakes profits of 75.6pts (+12.8% ROI)
Those figures are marginally better at this lower end of quality with a record of 85/535 (15.6% SR) for 72.5pts (+13.6% ROI) in class 4 to 6 races.
Roger Charlton also likes to step his unexposed handicappers up in trip and since 2008 with horses running at the same class or down a grade stepping up by 2 to 4 furlongs with no more than 4 previous handicap outings, Roger has 10 winners from 49 (20/4% SR) and profits of 34.6pts (+70.5% ROI).
Of those runners, the record with handicap debutants is 5.23 (21.7% SR) for 23.2pts at an ROI of 101%.
This doesn’t look a tough race and Chauvelin is bred to stay this trip and beyond and I suppose the only issue is whether he’ll take to the surface. The market seems to think he has a very good chance, which possibly says more about the standard of his opposition which is why we’re only able to place our 1pt win bet on Chauvelin at 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power. You can also get 3/1 from BetVictor, but our runner is already as low as 9/4 in parts, as you’ll see if you…
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