Stat of the Day, 5th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2014

No back to back evening successes at Kempton for us as Chauvelin was beaten by 2.5 lengths into fifth place on Thursday evening. He had been held up in mid-division for a challenge and was handily placed off the last bend before being outpaced for a furlong or so.

He stayed on strongly though, making up ground in the closing stages, but the damage was already done and that’s a point lost.

Chase action for Friday in the…

3.00 Sandown:

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And Tom George’s 9 yr old Ballyallia Man who trades at 3/1 BOG with Betbright.

Tom is in great form at the moment with four winners from seven runners in the last 5 days and has a good record with this chasers over the last couple of years. Since the start of 2102, his chasers have won 84 of 467 (18% SR) races for 55.3pts level stakes profits at an ROI of  11.8% and more relevant to SotD is the fact that these runners are 71/313 (22.7% SR) for 63.6pts (+20.3% ROI) when priced between 6/4 & 8/1.

Ballyallia Man is top weight here carrying 11-12 in his bid to land back to back wins after triumphing at Wincanton four weeks ago, which in turn was his first outing for 220 days, so it was an impressive performance to win after the layoff.

I’m not concerned about him being top weight, because in what I call winter chases (ie Nov to Apr) on Soft ground or worse, top weight chasers carrying 11-5 to 11-12 who won inside the last 45 days but haven’t had more than 3 runs in the last 90 days have won 41 of 132 (31.1% SR) races since 2008 and the profits of 59.2pts equate to a 44.8% return on your money with those running on soft ground like today being 29/87 (33.33% SR) for 58.5pts (+67.3% ROI)

From those soft ground runners, 16 winners from the 46 (34.8% SR) carrying 11-12 for 32.7pts (+71.1% ROI) profit and the soft ground runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 are 24/71 (33.8% SR) for 62.5pts (+88% ROI).

Which ultimately gives us the soft ground runners priced between 2/1 & 10/1 and carrying 11-12 : 11 winners from 34 (32.4% SR) for 32.6pts (+95.9% ROI) profit.

That win last time out came after a run of form reading 0P44, so it’s unsurprising to see he turned back out fairly quickly in a bid to strike whilst the iron is hot. Chasers won won LTO after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts have followed up that win with another win on 53 of 208 (25.5% SR) occasions when sent off at 7/1 or shorter within 30 days of that win. Those 53 winners have helped to generate profits of 44.5pts at an ROI of 21.4%.

Ballyallia Man was a comfortable winner last time out, finishing 6 lengths clear of his nearest rival and although his mark has increased as a result, I think he might still have something in hand over the assessor. He seemed to have plenty spare that day, despite it being his return from an absence of 220 days and I expect he’ll come on again for having had that run.

He stays further than this and has a good record in testing conditions with 2 wins and 4 places on ground described as either soft or heavy with a 1314 record on soft ground. The weight is, admittedly, a little bit of a concern, but that’s possibly why he’s not as short as he might have been in the market.

The call, therefore, for Friday is a 1pt win bet on Ballyallia Man at 3/1 BOG with Betbright. For a fuller market overview…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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