Double Dutch, 6th December 2014
It was money for nothing last night, as Dire Straits and Akasaka did the biz. And, with the former contracting, and the latter drifting markedly, we had a tidy old uplift on the projected 15/1 double.
In fact, the payout was 15/8 (returned just 11/10) and 7/1, making a 22/1 pair, and more gravy to the Double Dutch pudding.
It saddens me that 58% of people who responded to the recent geegeez.co.uk survey currently pay for tips, but just 126 people viewed yesterday’s winning post. And less than a hundred of them did so before the first race was off.
This free daily service is now £854.40 to the good, for just 4 x £2.50 doubles a day. Sure, there’s a tiny amount of work involved in placing bets with multiple bookmakers. Might be three minutes a day.
But it’s such a waste that so few people are engaging with this free money. (Obviously, if you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you’re in the sub-100 that are already benefitting!). Anyway, let’s roll on…
It’s a thorny weekend wager as ever, and we’re bidding to follow up some real humdingers in recent times. Fingers crossed…
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Dire Straits: won at 11/10 (adv 15/8)
Heska: 4th at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Banna Boirche: 5th at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Akasaka: won at 7/1 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
427 winning selections from 1486 = 28.73%
136 winning bets in 386 days = 35.23%
P/L : +85.44pts (+11.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Lots of connections hoping they’ve got a good one in this engaging novice hurdle, and the two I’m focusing on are expensive recruit, Clean Sheet, and form horse, King’s Odyssey.
Clean Sheet won an Irish point in good style in March last year, so this is his first start for almost two years. But it’s not like Nicky Henderson to bring one to Sandown without a chance, and with McCoy steering this JP McManus beast, a big run is expected from the overnight 9/4 favourite.
The one he’ll have to beat most likely is King’s Odyssey. Evan Williams horse ran a massive speed figure when second in a novices’ hurdle four weeks ago. None of the first five home there have run since, so it’s hard to get a handle on the form; but the form of his bumper second to Battle Born has been franked time and again – seven winners and eight further placed horses from 33 subsequent starts.
Moreover, the horses in first and third have both won twice since from three starts each, giving his form a very solid look. 5/2 BOG looks fair enough.
James Ewart holds the key to this race, and consequently to the Saturday Double Dutch potentially, as he’s double handed in this field of five. Both his pair feature on The Shortlist, with Wilde Pastures scoring an almost full ‘line of green’ 13 (just one amber), and demanding attention.
A winner last time out in Class 4, this step up in grade is within his compass, and the softer ground should play to his strengths. He’s a course and distance winner, and jockey Dale Irving gets on great having won three of five races aboard.
Ewart’s other runner is the rag of the field, eleven year old Sa Suffit. But, before you think I’m bonkers, hear me out. Sa Suffit has the full 15 point line of green on Instant Expert, meaning he’s optimally suited to conditions. He has been very lightly raced in recent seasons, and has dropped to an eye-catching mark. Lucy Alexander takes the ride for the first time, and she’s climbing atop a lad that has won four of his eight soft ground starts, two of his four distance starts, and for whom four of his five wins have been in this division or higher.
Sure, we’re taking a punt on the fire still burning aged eleven. But that’s more than reflected in the price, and we get to take the jolly as insurance in a five horse race.
Against the Ewart pair, Stagecoach Pearl has yet to even place in five soft ground starts; Le Bacardy has just one placed effort (no wins) in five Class 3 events; and, Viva Colonia is 0 from 10 (just two placed efforts) at two miles. Let’s take the chance.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Clean Sheet/ Wilde Pastures @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : bet365)
Clean Sheet / Sa Suffit @ 26.63/1 (9/4 & 15/2 : Betfair SB)
King’s Odyssey / Sa Suffit @ 26.63/1 (9/4 & 15/2 : Betfair SB)
King’s Odyssey / Wilde Pastures @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : PP)