Double Dutch, 8th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th December 2014

No joy from a typically difficult Saturday card, I’m afraid, but our runners didn’t go down without a fight.

Clean Sheet looked like a typical McManus/Henderson/McCoy offering and looked very much like the winner as they cleared the last hurdle, but the “other” Henderson horse, Caracci Apache stayed on strongest to land something of a surprise win at 14/1, beating our runner by just over a length. Our other runner King’s Odyssey was going well enough and had every chance, but made a bit of a mess at the last and weakened out of contention on the run-in.

Then, a little later at Wetherby, we also came away empty handed. Sa Suffit was described by Matt as “the rag of the field” and indeed he was sent of as the 10/1 rank outsider of five, but he proved to be our best shot. He had a full line of green on the Shortlist, but I don’t think the ground was a soft as expected, which helped the ultimate winner somewhat.

Sa Suffit ran a decent race and stayed on well to finish 3rd, but I suspect the trip was a little too sharp in hindsight. James Ewart’s other runner Wilde Pastures was disappointing, though, trailing home last of the five, almost 20 lengths off the pace.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Clean Sheet: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
King’s Odyssey: 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
——————————————
Sa Suffit: 3rd at 10/1 (adv 15/2)
Wilde Pastures: 5th at 3/1 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
427 winning selections from 1490 = 28.66%
136 winning bets in 387 days = 35.14%

Stakes: 775.50pts
Returns: 858.94pts

P/L : +83.44pts (+10.76% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Monday offers typically tricky contests to fathom, but we’ll go with the following…

1.00 Lingfield:

Sellers aren’t generally of the highest quality and this race is no exception to that rule, but they all have a winner and I think this offers an ideal opportunity for Come Uppence to get off the mark at the ninth time of asking. A 0/8 record isn’t usually very appealing, but he’s rated at 70 and was ahead of several rivals rated better than he’ll face today, when he was the runner-up at Wolverhampton nine days ago. He’s usually be conceding weight all round, but dropped into selling class for the first time can now get off the mark at 2/1 BOG.

Little, however, will surely give the above a good run for his money, despite not impressing in three handicap runs to date, finishing 065. She does, however have wins in a maiden, a claimer and a seller to her name with a run of form in non-handicap events reading 23111. And despite finishing 5th of 6 on her hat-trick bid at Wolverhampton last time out, she was, in fairness, only beaten by two lengths, suggesting she’s still in good nick and her yard are going well at present too and she could be the one to deny Come Uppence, also at 2/1 BOG.

*

5.40 Kempton:

Golly Miss Molly is another maiden with a long list of defeats to her name (0/15!) who I think could be well placed to break her duck. She suffered 14 consecutive losses at trips of 5f to 8.5f, before stepping up markedly to today’s 1m4f last time out here over course and distance and gave her best run for some time. She was only beaten by two lengths on her first crack at the trip, as she managed to finish 3rd of 11 at 12/1. That experience over C&D should help her today in a race that looks a weaker affair than the one she faced last Wednesday and I expect a decent run from her here at 5/2 BOG. She’s not ideally drawn, but she tends to be held up normally, so there’s not going to be  a mad dash for her to hit the front early.

The biggest threat should surely come from former course and distance winner Reality Show. This one has won two of his five runs this year and is 4/10 on the all-weather to date. Trainer Shaun Harris is on a bit on a cold run at present, but he does have a good record in A/W handicaps over the years and with reality Show being eased slightly in the weights, this represents a really good opportunity for both horse and master to get back to winning ways.

Reality Show was only beaten by 3.5 lengths last time without getting a clear run and with horses ahead of him that day going on to win again, the signs are promising for a 3/1 BOG win here.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Come Uppence/ Golly Miss Molly @ 9.95/1 (2/1 & 53/20 : Betbright)
Come Uppence / Reality Show @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Hills)
Little / Golly Miss Molly @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : Betbright)
Little / Reality Show @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Coral)