Stat of the Day, 8th December 2014
I was, of course, away for the weekend and I’d rather talk about Matt’s pick on Saturday than my 8 hour delay sat in the airport on Friday night!
Dunraven Storm, for the record, put up a good display and looked good value for his eventual 5/1 SP, undoubtedly lengthened by the presence of an odds on favourite in the field. Irish Saint was that jolly, and our runner beat him by a head, but ended up a couple of lengths shy of the other Nicholls’ runner Vibrato Valtat who stayed on strongest.
Ifs and buts don’t win races, but had our boy not made a mess of the last fence and had he not been subsequently sandwiched on the run-in, things may well have been very different.
The start of a new week and we do like to kick off with a winner, where possible and so my quest leads us to the…
Where James Fanshawe’s Zman Awal is rated a 9/4 BOG chance in this Class 4, 6 furlong, 3yo+ A/W handicap. It has been well versed by myself in this column and stat followers in general that James has a really good record here at Kempton, but I think it would a little lazy to build my piece around that well-worn path. Of course, my reasons for selection will refer back to Kempton, but only as reaffirmation, if you will.
First up, is the main reason why I like to back James Fanshawe’s horses and the simple fact is that…
You can back James blindly and make a profit!
If you backed every single Fanshawe runner since the start of 2011, you’d have hit 146 winners from 930 bets and that 15.7% strike rate would have seen you collect £1802 winnings from £10 level stakes bets, a return of 19.4% from your £9300 investment, which is fantastic from blind backing, as long as you’re patient enough to ride out the losing runs which inevitably come. (I know you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be a geegeez reader).
On the All-Weather, the record is 71/362 (19.6% SR) for 50.8pts (+14% ROI), whilst all handicap (turf & A/W) runners have won 87 from 493 races (17.7% SR) for 73pts (+14.8% ROI) profit.
In A/W handicaps, his string have won 43 from 202 races (21.3% SR) for 6.3pts profit (+32.8% ROI) and as we’re playing at the sharper end of the market today, it’s interesting to note that those running at prices shorter than 7/2 have won 22/56 (39.3% SR) for 18.7pts (+33.4% ROI). Here at Kempton that figure is 15/38 (39.5% SR) for 16.8pts (+44.2% ROI).
Zman Awal steps up in class today…
Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has stepped 199 handicappers up in class and the 41 winners represents a very healthy strike rate of 20.6% and good profits of 83.9pts at an ROI of 42.2%. On the A/W, those numbers become 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 6.15pts (+111.8% ROI).
Once again, we should note that those well-fancied runners go well with the sub-7/2 shots winning 9/15 (60% SR) for 16.7pts (+111.2% ROI) profits with a record here at Kempton of 8/9 (88.9% SR) for 20.2pts (+224.5% ROI)
This is a 3yo+ handicap contest today…
An area where James does particularly well, especially with horses running at the same class or up 1 class from last time out and also runningat the same trip or within 1 furlong of their last outing. Such horses have won 17 out 81 races (21%SR) since 2009 for level stakes profits of 24.8pts (+30.7% ROI) with those sent off in the Evens to 5/1 price band boasting a 12/41 (29.3% SR) record that has generated 12.2pts profit at an ROI of 29.7%. These shorter priced runners are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 16.9pts (+60.2% ROI) here at Kempton.
Zman Awal was last seen 38 days days getting collared late on by the faster-finishing Bint Dandy (runs in the 2.30 Lingfield at one class higher than this, so might be a pointer) to be beaten by a neck over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. The drop back in trip should therefore remove any vulnerability to a “finisher” and there’s some form to follow with Bint Dandy subsequently running to within half a length of the winner next time out despite a 5lb rise in the weights.
The third-placed horse from that run at Wolverhampton, Don’t Be, was almost three lengths behind Zman Awal, but she has since gone on to win both her starts since that day. Our runner is still an unexposed type after just six starts (unraced as a 2yr old) and I think the drop back in trip will be to her liking. She’s run on this surface a couple of times before and that experience will help too.
Zman Awal is a little bit shorter than my usual SotD picks at 9/4 BOG, but she does stand out as a strong contender, especially on a Monday, a day when viable stats are often in short supply! The good news, however, about the price is that it’s pretty much available at every bookie, so we’ll all be getting the same!
I’ve placed my 1pt win bet on Zman Awal at 9/4 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook, but to see your preferred bookies’ prices…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS