Stat of the Day, 9th December 2014
Thankfully it’s a rare occurrence, but occasionally you can lose a bet before the race has really started and that’s how I felt Monday’s SotD race panned out.
Zman Awal was well fancied and also quite widely tipped by many reputable people in the business, which will have helped him get backed into an SP of 5/4, meaning we had some real value in our 9/4 ticket, but as the gates opened, our hopes were almost immediately dashed.
The horse reared up in the stalls and sort of jumped up in the air and by the time jockey and horse were in sync, they were playing catch up, a dangerous and difficult tactic over 6 furlongs. Too much early energy was expended in getting the horse back into mid-division, meaning there wasn’t enough in the tank for a finishing burst and the race ended with our runner finishing tamely back in 6th of the 11 runners, some 4.5 lengths off the pace.
Sometimes you have to accept these anomalies and move on to the next selection and for us, that comes in Tuesday’s…
Where I can’t help but think that the quick returning (won over this trip last Friday) Pearl Noir looks over-priced at 9/2 BOG with Paddy Power.
He’s trained by Scott Dixon…
…who is having a decent year at Southwell having saddled up 7 winners from 48 handicappers in 2014 with the 14.6% strike rate generating 29.3pts profit at an ROI of 61%.
Today’s jockey is Tim Clark, who claims 5lbs…
…and will seek to become the latest winner for the Dixon yard whilst riding with a 5lb claim. Scott Dixon hasn’t held a training licence for too long, but has developed a bit of a reputation for his careful placement of 5lb claimer jockeys with a 14/94 (14.9% SR) record to date that has produced 21.5pts (+22.8% ROI) profit so far. Interestingly, if we discount the obvious longshots ie 12/1 and above, we’re left with all 14 winners but from just 51 rides at a strike rate of 27.5% and level stakes profits of 64.5pts (+126.4%), figures far more palatable to SotD regulars!
Pearl Noir was a winner just last Friday at Kempton and is back on track quickly here…
…and we should take note of horses who won last time out within the past five days and then run again on the A/W under the following conditions: OR of 0-7lbs higher, Same class or up one grade, same trip or within a furlong (longer or shorter) and have already won 1-3 races at today’s trip.
These horses have won 50 of 140 races since the start of 2011, a 35.7% strike rate yielding 45.4pts at an ROI of 32.4%. If we then find where Pearl Noir fits into those stats, we see that…
Those raised 6lbs are 35/102 (34.2% SR) for 33.7pts (+33% ROI).
Running at the same Class : 33/100 (33% SR) for 14.2pts (+14.2% ROI)
Running at the same trip : 42/107 (39.3% SR) for 47pts (+44%)
All of which are very encouraging stats, leading towards those running at the same class & trip as last time out, but raised by 6lbs winning 19 of 54 (35.2% SR) contests for level stakes profits of 8.2pts at an ROI of 15.2%. That return isn’t, admittedly, brilliant, but it does include all runners at all odds and relies on horses winning back to back contests. However, when the market likes those horses, they do very well indeed and those sent off in the 5/4 to 5/1 bracket have won 12 races out of 32 (37.5% SR) for 18pts (+56.3% ROI) which is more where we like to play.
Pearl Noir has won on this track in the past and also won over today’s trip at both Kempton and Wolverhampton and that win last week was the first time Tim Clark had ridden him, so there’s plenty of factors in our favour there to reaffirm the selection. I should also mention that horses running on the A/W here at Southwell who ran at Kempton LTO have won 24 of 167 races (14.4% SR) this year for profits of 47.4pts (+28.4% ROI)
There was a lot to like about Pearl Noir‘s win at Kempton last week, where he made all to win by 3 lengths, finding extra late on as the pack looked like they might close in on him. The hood that was discarded last week is omitted again and on the evidence of that run, 6lbs might not be enough to stop him and I’d have expected him to be shorter in the market.
So, the call for Tuesday is a 1pt win bet on Pearl Noir at 9/2 BOG with Paddy Power, but for a fuller market overview…
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