Stat of the Day, 10th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2014

No excuses, no ifs, no buts or whatevers, Pearl Noir ran an absolute stinker at Southwell on Tuesday afternoon.

Were there any positives to glean from yesterday’s piece, well maybe. We got the right trainer, I suppose, as Scott Dixon’s “other runner”, Incomparable was a pretty comfortable 20/1 winner of a race that none of the fancied picks made the first three home. In fact, the tricast paid almost £8,000. Eight grand! (as a famous Bolton comedian might say!)

A further clutching of the straws shows that the 9/4 SP of our runner was half of the 9/2 we’d taken earlier, but 13th of 14 runners and beaten by over 12 lengths in a 5f sprint just isn’t what either myself or SotD is about. The beauty of a daily feature is that I don’t have to wait long for an opportunity of redemption, which I’m hoping will come in Wednesday’s…

3.10 Leicester:

Where the Twiston-Davies team of father & trainer Nigel along with son & jockey Sam have high hopes of continued progression from their 5yr old Brownville who makes his handicap debut here today and is available to back at 4/1 BOG in a couple of places.

Let’s start with trainer & dad Nigel’s record here at Leicester…

Well, Nigel doesn’t actually send too many runners here to be honest, just 78 in the last seven years, but with 14 winners providing an 18% strike rate and 26.6pts profit at an ROI of 34.1%, it’s not a lack of success keeping him away, nor should be a logistics issue with just a 130-mile round trip to navigate.

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Son Sam rides his dad’s horses very well…

And if you backed every single one priced at 14/1 or shorter over the last 5 years, you’d have backed 116 winners from 553 (21% SR) runners and your level stakes profits of 92.2pts would equate to 16.7% of your stakes or £5 profit from every £30 wagered, which doesn’t sound much, but it soon adds up over a longer period. If, as today, the Sam/Nigel partnership is priced between 11/8 & 9/2, there have been 65 winners from 214 runners in the same time frame, with that impressive 30.4% strike rate yielding 53.6pts profit and an ROI of 25%.

And when Sam rides for his dad here at Leicester, he has won 9 of 45 rides (20% SR) for 25pts (+55.6% ROI) profit.

Nigel is a dab hand at getting unexposed handicappers to win…

In the last five years, he has sent out 557 runners with less than five handicap runs to their name and with 87 of them winning, this more than respectable 15.6% strike rate has produced 128.6pts (+23.1%ROI) level stakes profit and of those, 120 were (like Brownville today) making their handicap debut. 20 of 120 (16.7% SR) were winners, resulting in profits of 90.5pts (+75.4% ROI) and those 120 runners can be further scrutinised as follows:

From the 120 handicap debutants…

19/106 (17.9% SR) were hurdlers producing 101.8pts (+96% ROI) profit, with a record of 11/24 (45.8% SR) at odds of below 5/1 generating 21.5pts at an ROI of 89.6%. Sam Twiston-Davies rode 7 winners from 15 runners (46.7% SR) on handicap debut priced below 5/1 and made 13.7pts (+91.3% ROI) for his followers.

Brownville is by Kayf Tara, whose progeny fare well at this track…

62 of Kayf Tara’s offspring have run here in the past with the 13 winners providing a 21% strike rate and 62.4pts profit at an ROI of 100.6%. Their record over hurdles is 6/25 (24% SR) for 37pts (+148% ROI), with all 6 winners coming from the 17 runners priced at 12/1 or shorter with that 35.3% strike rate producing profits of 45pts (+264.7% ROI).

Kayf Tara’s offspring make for good handicap hurdlers too…

In the last two years, horses by Kayf Tara and aged 5 and over have won 33 of the 94 (35.1% SR) handicap hurdle races in which they have been priced at 11/2 or shorter. This excellent strike rate has rewarded backers with level stakes profits of 60.1pts (+64% ROI)

Sam has only ridden two Kayf Tara horses for his dad over hurdles here at Leicester in the past. Kaylif Aramis was third in November 2012, whilst Mini Muck was a winner over today’s trip a year ago at 9/2.

Brownville has been progressing nicely since making his debut under Rules in April of this year. Prior to that, he had won once and placed three times in six 3 mile point to point races, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue today, especially with good efforts in the mud. He won one of his two bumpers at Ludlow and was second in the other one, finishing ahead of subsequent dual winner Nicholas Chauvin in the process.

Brownville was then second (beaten by just 6 lengths) on his hurdling debut over 2m4f, where he plugged on well, despite a 6-month break from racing, to be the nearest rival to Private Malone who has since stepped up in class to win again and his next/last run came at Ludlow almost foru wekks ago when he got to within less than 2.5 lengths of the winner over 2m5f.

Conditions look ideal for Brownville today and if his progression continues as expected, then we should be cashing in from a 1pt win bet at 4/1 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook. For the rest of the prices on this race…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.10 Leicester 

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Here is today’s racecard.

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