Stat of the Day, 11th December 2014
Brownville was tough and gutsy on Wednesday afternoon over at Leicester, staying on well and finding a bit extra when needed to land the spoils on his handicap debut. He made virtually all the running and just as it looked like the favourite might swallow him up, he kicked on again to get home by a length and a half, despite conceding a chunk of weight to the runner-up.
It was a good day for me/SotD for more than just the bare result, too. Firstly we got 4/1 about a 9/4 runner and getting value like that is the cornerstone of our success here: if you can get 178% of SP, you will make money in the long run. Secondly we highlighted the Twiston-Davies father and son combination and hopefully some of you got on the 9/1 winner they had in the race before ours.
We could do with a similar type of battling effort from today’s selection who will hopefully win the…
Where Top Gamble will attempt to make it 2/2 over fences and take his career record to 4 wins from 8.
He’s currently a 5/2 BOG shot with Boylesports to achieve this and 9/4 everywhere else. This is towards the lower end of where I like to play for SotD, but there are some fairly compelling (IMO, of course! 😀 ) stats to back up my selection.
Firstly, an overview of the situation. Top Gamble won a novice chase on his first start over fences 26 days ago and now steps up a grade to Class 3 for this handicap event. He runs here off a mark of 135, which is just 2lbs higher than his Class 2 hurdling mark, despite a poor run of form in handicap hurdles where he failed to place in his last three starts (9FF!), but fared considerably on his debut for his new yard last time out after a break of 8 months.
He is now trained by Richard Lee…
…who is marginally/modestly profitable to back blindly in NH contests. In fact, if you’d backed every one of his runners since the start of 2009, your betting record would show 111 winners from 856 bets (13% SR) for 36.2pts profit from a 1pt level stakes (ROI of 4.2%) Both the strike rate and ROI percentages are pretty low for SotD purposes, but do make an excellent base camp. I now want to drill down into those numbers…
So, from the 856 NH runners over the last six years:
In handicaps : 80/632 (12.7% SR) for 45pts (+7.1% ROI)
In handicap chases : 64/457 (14% SR) for 50.6pts (+11.1% ROI)
In Class 3 handicap chases : 24/163 (14.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+17.9% ROI) , which is now far more to my liking.
We can, however, take a further look at the Class 3 handicap chasers and we find that those rated above 128 are 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 40pts (+117.6% ROI), those who won last time out are 6/30 (20% SR) for 5.2pts (+17.2% ROI) and those whose last run was 21 to 75 days ago are 15/101 (14.9% SR) for 23.6pts (+23.3% ROI) profit.
Top Gamble steps up from Class 4 to Class 3 today…
Richard Lee’s record with horses stepping up in class in NH handicap races since 2008 is 27 winners from 167 (15.6% SR) runners, producing 75.7pts at an ROI of 45.3% and that’s a good enough stat to leave standing alone, but I won’t!
Of the 167 stepped up in class, there 18 winners from 118 (15.3% SR) chasers, generating profits of 49.2pts (+41.7% ROI). Class 3 runners were 14/61 (23% SR) for 40.9pts (+67.1% ROI) and those sent off at 12/1 or shorter won 24 of 110 (21.8%SR) races for 92.2pts (+83.8% ROI) profit.
Over the last six years, Richard Lee’s chasers moving from Class 4 to Class 3 and priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 odds range are 9/29 (31% SR) for 28pts (+96.7% ROI) profit, with those running at 2/1 to 4/1 winning 6 of 13 (46.2% SR) races for 11.8pts profit at an ROI of 90.6%
As many of you know, I like to look out for horses turned back out fairly quickly after a return to form s trainers seek to strike whilst the iron is hot and…
…Top Gamble is one of my back to form horses…
Over obstacles, this means he won in the last 30 days after a run of at least consecutive unplaced efforts. Since 2008, horses fitting this description and running at 6/5 to 10/1 odds, have won 380 of 1810 (21% SR) follow-up races, generating level stakes profits of 204.1pts (+11.3% ROI) in the process. More interestingly, in the last two years alone, chasers are 58/251 (23.1% SR) for 43.5pts (+17.3% ROI).
His win 26 days ago was in a Novice Chase, his debut over fences…
I’m a copious note taker and I read a while ago about winners of Novice Chases winning handicap chases fairly soon afterwards. I did a bit of digging this evening and it turns out that unexposed (ie less than 10 starts) handicap chasers who are rated at 130 or higher and won a Novice Chase last out within the previous 60 days, went on to win their handicap contest on 22 of 136 occasions (16.2% SR) over the last 4 years. These winners have rewarded backers with a profit of 82.1pts to date at an ROI of 60.4%. I accept that this is a fairly niche angle, but it’s certainly pertinent and relevant and is a useful back-up stat.
All I now want to add about Top Gamble is a quick footnote about that chase win and the conditions as they relate to today’s contest. It was over today’s 2m trip and it was on soft ground (officially Good to Soft / Soft in Places with a forecast for heavy rain), but he also has good form on heavy ground (2 wins and a runner-up from 4 starts), so trip and going won’t be his undoing here.
He beat Yorkist by six lengths that day, who in turn stepped up to this Class 3 level to win at Carlisle by nine lengths easing down 11 days ago, whilst Grate Fella was a faller when already beaten by Top Gamble at Wetherby, but has since run and won a chase eight days ago.
The collateral form looks good, the stats are stacking up and if anything, he should come on for having had that run last time out. He isn’t too onerously treated by the handicapper and I’m happy to back Top Gamble at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports. 9/4 seems to be the norm elsewhere, as can be seen, when you…
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