Double Dutch, 11th December 2014
More frustration on Wednesday, I’m afraid, after things had started so well up at Hexham. I really liked the look of Deep Resolve and had backed him as a single at 2/1 BOG before putting him in the double, if I’m honest. In fact, he would have been a selection for my new Statpicks service which launches today (Thursday) had I been up and running with that one, such was my confidence in him.
As it was, he made all and kicked clear from the last, leaving some tired looking horses behind him and the only shock I got was when he was returned the 7/2 winner. As expected Walser was the runner-up yet again, despite having been backed in from our 4/1 to become the 5/2 favourite. It was a good race for us topped off by the drift and the bonus of a £12.30 forecast.
We then had a 15 minute wait until the start of the Kempton programme, where I expected Spinning Cobblers and Seven Lucky Seven to be battling it out and as the latter took the lead from the former inside the final furlong, we looked well set for a 17/1 double and possibly another forecast to boot. Unfortunately for us, Rememberance Day got a second wind, despite having to be vigorously ridden 2f out and he got up inside the final 50 yards to deny us.
Close, but no cigar, I’m afraid.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Deep Resolve : won at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Moss on the Mill: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
The forecast paid £12.30.
Seven Lucky Seven: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Spinning Cobblers: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
431 winning selections from 1502 = 28.70%
137 winning bets in 390 days = 35.13%
P/L : +85.44pts (+10.93% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday’s selected races/runners are as follows…
Trust Thomas was a winner over course and distance here last time out in similar conditions to today, just four weeks ago. That was his chasing debut and he’s entitled to improve for the experience. His jockey Brian Hughes rode the winner of this race last year and a 5lb rise in weight for that recent win doesn’t look too taxing and he could well score again, albeit at a fairly skinny 6/4 BOG.
Barring his way to victory here will be Categorical, who just loves soft ground, loves this Newcastle track and was also a winner here last time out four weeks ago. Team Reveley are going really well at present and I’d probably be all over Categorical at 9/4 BOG, had the trip been a little longer.
In what looks a fairly tight/tricky contest to call, I quite like the look of Alan King’s Money For Nothing who was a decent second to double-achieving Frizzo last time out. That run came at Huntingdon almost three weeks ago in pretty similar conditions to what he’ll face today and he runs off the same 105 mark as last time despite getting pretty close to the 112 rated winner.
Alan King’s runners are absolutely flying at the moment and we’re expecting that his runner here will come on for that run on his chase debut and go one better here at 100/30 BOG.
And whilst I’m reasonably confident about Money for Nothing‘s chances here, the secondary pick is a little more unclear. I could make a case for two of three of his six rivals, but I’m siding witht he form horse Un Anjou, who will admittedly have to cope with a 6lb rise in weight, but that in itself generally suggests the horse is doing something right!
Un Anjou comes here off the back of a win at Musselburgh 13 days ago and he certainly knows what the chasing game is all about. 10 top-3 finishes from his 16 starts to date, including two wins. He goes best at this shorter end of the distances with 2 wins, 3 x second places and 3 x third places from his 11 efforts at 16f/16.5f and he acts on all ground from good downwards. trainer David Dennis doesn’t have the biggest string of horses, but he’s had 3 winners from 9 in the last fortnight and will fancy his chances again here today at 5/1 BOG (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Trust Thomas/ Money for Nothing @ 9.83/1 (6/4 & 10/3 : bet365, betVictor, Ladbrokes & SkyBet)
Trust Thomas / Un Anjou @ 14/1 (6/4 & 5/1 : Stan James)
Categorical / Money for Nothing @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Stan James & Hills)
Categorical / Un Anjou @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Stan James)