Stat of the Day, 12th December 2014
Top Gamble jumped brilliantly at Warwick on Thursday and made all of the running, holding a fairly slender lead for much of the race, but saving plenty for a finish on what turned out to be the start of a glorious day for his trainer Richard Lee, who landed himself a 636.5/1 treble on the day.
Top Gamble pulled clear approaching the last fence, sailed over and ran on to win by 7 lengths. I was worried that many of you wouldn’t get a decent price, so I hastily put him up last night at 5/2 BOG and he did indeed shorten considerably to 7/4 by lunchtime and then for some reason, he drifted out by a full point to win at 11/4, a price I was delighted with.
He’s destined for better things, I think and he now ensures we make profit this week with 2 more picks to come: the first of which will run in Friday’s…
And a fairly swift return to the track for Bill Turner’s Lord of the Storm, who was a course and distance winner here just 10 days ago.
Bill Turner is one of our SotD favourite types of trainers…
One of what I call the “set and forget” group, ie if they’ve got a runner, back it and long-term you’ll make money, providing you’re patient and can handle long losing runs.
Here what I mean: if you had put £10 on every single Bill Turner over the last 6 years, you’d have wagered £11,830 in total, but you’d have made profits of £2134 or 18.2% ROI and that’s via 117 winners from 1183 runners (9.9% SR).
I’m now going to gradually split those 1183 runners down to just 15 in 5 steps!
1. From the 1183…those running at Classes 3 to 7 are 116/1158 (10% SR) for 217.1pts (+18.8% ROI)
2. and of those 1158…those competing in November and December are 18/185 (9.7% SR) for 55pts (+29.7% ROI)
3. from which, A/W runners won 15 of 109 (13.8% SR) races for profits of 51.8pts at an ROI of 47.6%.
4. The A/W runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 won 12 of 34 (35.3% SR) races for 56.9pts (+167.4% ROI)
5. of which, the record here at Wolverhampton is 6/15 (40% SR) for 36.3pts at an ROI of “only” 242.2%
Bill’s overall record here at Wolverhampton in Class 6 & 7 racing over the last 6 years is 18/119 (15.1% SR) for 37.1pts (+31.2% ROI) profit.
Lord of The Storm raced (and won over C&D) just 10 days ago…
And over the last six years, Bill Turner has turned 128 horses back out inside 11 days of a top four finish with 33 winners providing a very attractive 25.8% strike rate and excellent level stakes profits of 137.2pts at an ROI of 107.2% Of those 128 runners, 34 were winners LTO and 14 of these (41.2% SR) wet on to win again, producing profits of 30.9pts (+90.9% ROI) in the process, with a 2/4 record here at Wolverhampton.
That recent win came after three unplaced efforts…
Making Lord of the Storm another qualifier from my back to form micro system. The basic rules on the A/W are handicappers who won LTO in the last 25 days with that win being preceded by a run of at least 3 consecutive unplaced efforts.
This horse has finished 28041 in his last five outings, making him a qualifier here. That win was no surprise either, as the 4th place finish was closer than you’d think, being beaten by less than a length, so a win was on the cards LTO. Anyway, horses fulfilling the criteria and running at 7/1 or shorter since 2008 have won 356 of 1394 (25.5% SR) follow-up races with the level stakes profits of 161.3pts equating to 11.6% of all stakes invested.
In the last six years here at Wolverhampton, the figures aren’t entirely dissimilar, but are slightly improved via 108 winners from 414 (26.1% SR) generating 55.7pts (+13.4% ROI) profit.
That win 10 days ago came just 4 days after that narrow 4th place finish, so it’s clear that Lord of the Storm enjoys being sent back out quickly and he fairly coasted home by 2.5 lengths over this course and distance. He’s raised 6lbs for that effort, but now drops down into a poor-looking Class 7 contest, where he’s clearly the form horse and the one to beat. and I’m not convinced there’s sufficient quality or weight on his back to stop him going in again.
So, I’m backing Lord of the Storm to win again here. No repeat of the 10/1 success last time out, but I’m happy enough to take 3/1 BOG from Bet365, whilst a full market overview is available, if you just…
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