Stat of the Day, 13th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2014

I’m not entirely sure what caused the situation to arise, but Lord of the Storm was left with far too much to do and in a poor racing position at Wolverhampton on Friday evening. He had to be pulled back slightly and switched outside for run, but by this time, the race was (in my eyes) gone.

He stayed on strongly and made up a fair bit of ground, but hadn’t set off early/quick enough to catch leaders. The end result was a third place finish, beaten by three parts of a length. Once again, we smashed SP, taking 3/1 about a 7/4 fav, but that’s scant consolation at present.

I’d love to end the week with a winner and we’re off chasing in a less than leafy Surrey for the…

12.20 Lingfield:

And a family affair with Joshua Moore riding the 3/1 BOG shot Tothemoonandback for his father Gary in this energy sapping Class 3 Handicap chase over three miles on heavy ground.

Gary has a good record here at Lingfield…

In NH races since the start of 2009, Gary has saddled up 14 winners from his 107 runners, with the resultant 13.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 12.7pts at an ROI of 11.9%.

In handicap contests, the figures are 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) for 32.2pts (+55.6% ROI) profit, whilst in chase events there have been 8 winners from 40 (20% SR) runners for 38.2pts (+95.6% ROI) profit. Gary’s handicap chasers are 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 44.6pts (+139.2% ROI) here at Lingfield with Joshua riding 5 of those winners from just 11 attempts (45.5% SR), which in turn have generated 21.5pts profit at an ROI of 195.1%.

Tothemoonandback was a winner last time out…

And Gary Moore’s chasers who won last time out followed up with another win in 17 of 63 (27% SR) attempts since 2008. These winners have produced 35.5pts profit at an ROI of 56.4%, whilst those sent off at 8/1 or shorter were victorious 16 times from 45 (35.6% SR) for 38.8pts (+86.1% ROI) profit.

That latest win came at Huntingdon 32 days ago and Gary’s who won LTO and then raced again after a period of 16-45 days won again in 13 of 35 (37.1% SR) races with the profits of 50.7pts equating to 144.8% of all stakes and if we applied that same 8/1 odds cap as earlier, we’re left with 12 winners from 25 (48% SR) for 45.9pts (+183.7% ROI). From those 25 runners, jockey Joshua’s contribution was 5 winners from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.2pts (+315.1% ROI) profit.

Tothemoonandback now steps up in class…

Since 2008, Gary has had 161 chasers making a realistic step up in class and the 27 winning runners provides a very healthy 16.8% strike rate and attractive level stakes profits of 67.9pts or 42.2% of stakes. Joshua’s own record on these runners is 6 wins from 34 (17.7% SR) for 12.5pts (+36.8% ROI)

Those stepping up to today’s Class 3 level have won 16 out of 68 races (23.5%SR) for profits of 52.3pts (+76.9% ROI) with Joshua riding 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) for 21.9pts (+219.3% ROI)

Tothemoonandback is seeking a hat-trick of wins today, having won on his seasonal reappearance at Plumpton (3m2f, heavy) 40 days ago, despite being off the track for almost 13 months. He’s still unexposed as a chaser with today being just his fifth crack at fences in almost 20 months, but his record so far is impressive at 3211.

He’s won on both soft and heavy ground and has won at today’s 3m trip and also at two furlongs further, so the mud and the distance shouldn’t be an issue here today. All things considered, I fancy him to cope with a 4lb rise in weight to land this here today, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Tothemoonandback at a widely available 3/1 BOG. I’m using Boylesports for my wager, but feel free to take your pick of the bookies, after you…

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