Double Dutch, 15th December 2014
Saturdays have been very good to us here at DD of late and I think Saturday’s success was the fifth winning Saturday in the last six!
A quick recap from the most recent of those Saturdays shows the following: 2 races, 4 horses, 2 winners, 2 runners up, a 19/2 double, 2 forecasts at 49/3 and 31/10 and for the really brave a juicy forecast double at 70/1.
Obviously we don’t count the forecasts in our official results, but they do crop up quite often and I know many of you like to have the odd couple of quid on them, so fair play to those who backed them last week. The second race was particularly likely to fulfil a forecast for us.
As for the doubles, the only minor gripe is that the shorter priced runners won the races, but Sea Wall’s drift out to 3/1 ensured a decent 19/2 win. Had the other two, we’d have been on at 14.75/1, but ifs and buts don’t pay the bills!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Sea Wall: won at 3/1 (adv 21/10)
Cappielow Park: 2nd at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
The forecast paid £17.32 here
Rock On Ruby: won at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Volnay de Thaix: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
This forecast was a mere £4.10
Results to date:
436 winning selections from 1514 = 28.80%
139 winning bets in 393 days = 35.37%
P/L : +89.61pts (+11.38% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday racing is thin in numbers and lacking in quality, but there are still 22 winners out there to find and we only need two of them! 😀
Itoldyou won here over course and distance a little over a year ago and since then has been in consistently decent form over fences, winning twice and making the frame on four occasions from his seven outings with a 4th place finish here at Plumpton in January being his worst performance and that came over a woefully inadequate 2m4f.
He took a 7 months break before returning to action at Fontwell a little over five weeks ago and again at Newbury 18 days ago, finishing second on both occasions. Today’s trip/ground conditions and size of field look ideal for Itoldyou here and he could well be our winner at 3/1 BOG (Coral)…
…providing he can get away with conceding 12lbs to Ballyvoneen, who is a bit of a standing dish here. overall career stats of 8 wins from 47 aren’t bad, but the more you look into them, the better they become. 8/47 becomes 8/45 over fences, but he’s 6/15 here at Plumpton, 6/14 over today’s 3m2f trip and 6/13 over course and distance!
He was a winner last time out, when scoring over C&D yet again a fortnight ago, getting home pretty comfortably if truth be told to score by 4.5 lengths on similarly soft ground as he’ll face today.
Ballyvoneen does step up in class here and does carry an extra 6lbs for that win, but he’s still bottom weight for this contest and that might just make all difference for him here at a generally available 7/2 BOG.
Missandei might well have won a similar contest to this when beaten into third place by just over a length at this track a fortnight ago. She was leading inside the final furlong but strayed over tot he right allowing herself to be passed by two rivals late on.
Hopefully, she and re-booked jockey Danny Brock will have learnt a lesson from that experience, as this race looks an ideal opportunity for her to shed her maiden tag at a widely available 7/4 BOG today.
Missandei had led at the furlong pole and so the drop back in trip should help her here and she looks to be very favourably treated in her bid to improve Marco Botti’s already excellent record here at Wolverhampton, probably at the expense of…
…Spindle, who always seems to be there or thereabouts, despite failing to win any of her five handicap starts since three decent runs in maidens (231). She does, however, rarely run a bad race and the drop into a claimer allied to a step up in trip might be the answer today. Spindle does, at least, have a win to her name, albeit at Southwell over 7 furlongs.
And whilst those conditions might not readily transfer themselves to this track and trip, her form is consistently better than her rivals here today and she rates as 2nd best in a mediocre contest in my eyes and Spindle can be taken at 2/1 BOG to go on and win it.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Itoldyou/ Missandei @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Itoldyou / Spindle @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Ballyvoneen / Missandei @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : generally available)
Ballyvoneen / Spindle @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & Betfair Sportsbook)