Stat of the Day, 16th December 2014
Front Run was very disappointing at Wolverhampton on Monday afternoon and only managed to beat one of his eight rivals home despite a stack of stats suggesting he’d go quite well.
Several of you were quite right to disagree with the selection, but the market felt the same way I did, as the selection firmed up by half a point to an SP of 3/1.
Another 3yo+ A/W handicap for Tuesday and some names familiar to SotD regulars in the…
Where talented rising star Ali Rawlinson will attempt to make good use of his claim on board Mick Appleby’s 5 yr old gelding,Thorpe Bay, who is currently priced up at 5/2 BOG.
Ali has a growing reputation and has ridden well over the last year or so…
In handicap contests during 2013 & 2014, he has ridden 31 winners from 175 rides (17.7% SR) and although his level stake profits of 7.74pts (+4.42% ROI) are modest, it’s not often you can back a claimer blindly in so many races and make any profit. More importantly, it’s a starting point for further investigation, as from those 175 rides…
…he has 21 winners from 111 (18.9% SR) for 19.5pts (+17.6%) on the Appleby string and he has a record of 30/141 (21.3% SR) for 40.2pts (+28.5% ROI) on horses priced in the Evens to 12/1 range.
When riding Mick’s horses priced from evens to 12/1 he has won 20/96 (19.7% SR) races with resultant level stakes profits of 33pts equating to over 34.3% of stakes invested with those priced 2/1 to 6/1 winning 16 of 53 times (30.2% SR) and making 31.7pts (+59.8% ROI) profit.
Mick Appleby loves the winter A/W programme here at Southwell…
In the months from 1st November through to the end of March since 01/11/2012, Mick’s record here at Southwell reads as 43 wins from 180 (23.9% SR) accruing level stakes profits of 89.9pts (+49.9% ROI) along the way. In handicaps here those figures improve to 37 wins from 151 (24.5% SR) for 82.9pts (+54.9% ROI), with even better percentages achieved when Ali Rawlinson takes the reins with a 7/21 (33/33% SR) record generating 16.6pts (+78.8% ROI) profit.
Mick also has a good record using claimer jockeys…
…especially in handicap races on horses priced from 2/1 to 10/1 where his 28 winners from 152 runners gives a strike rate of 18.4% and profits of 42pts (+27.7% ROI), whilst on the A/W alone the record is 16 wins from 72 (22.2% SR) for 31.5pts (+43.7% ROI) profit. Runners here at Southwell make up almost 46% of the A/W runners, but actually contribute almost 69% of the winners via an 11/33 (33.33% SR) record yielding 41.9pts profit at an ROI of a fantastic 127.1%.
Needless to say, Ali Rawlinson’s contribution is more than useful at 7/20 (35% SR) for 20.4pts (+102% ROI).
And the yard does well in 3yo+ handicaps on the all-weather…
…especially with horses, like Thorpe Bay, running as the same class as last time out, where 21 winners from 169 runners is a decent 18.3% strike rate and the 47.9pts profit works out at over 28p in the pound on every bet. Those runners aged 3 to 5 have won 29 of 148 races (19.6% SR) for 61.7pts (+41.7% ROI), of which Ali has four winners from eighteen (22.2% SR) for 13.1pts (+72.6% ROI).
Thorpe Bay was running well around this time last year, before running out of form and steam in a below-par spring campaign. A 23-week break seems to have done the trick with three decent runs since returning to action six weeks Three runs, all at Wolverhampton and never beaten by far in a sequence reading 242 will have him in good heart for a return to his preferred track/surface.
As on first glance, his career stats of 4/49 aren’t great at all, but 4/35 on the A/W is better. More encouraging is the the fact that he’s 4/15 here at Southwell with two wins over course and distance. He has two of his seven December runs and runs here just 18 days after going down by a neck last time out, which is interesting for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, that run was 18 days ago and his four career wins to date have come after gaps of 16, 17, 18 and 20 days since the previous outing. He’s 4/8 running 16-20 since his last run, of which he’s 4/6 on the All-Weather and 4/4 here at Southwell. Also of interest was the way he was beaten by a neck last time out. he stayed on strongly an was making gr0und before the line came just a little too soon for him, but that was over 5f and the extra 220 yards should help him here today.
He was only held off by a neck by Invincible Ridge, who has since stepped up in Class to C4 and up in trip to today’s 6f to only be denied by a nose, getting caught on the line at Kempton off a mark of 79, opposed to Thorpe Bay‘s 73 here.
There are some good signs of a return to form and that near miss last time out could well be converted to a win now he’s back at Southwell, so I’ve no hesitation in backing Thorpe Bay at 5/2 BOG here. This price is on offer with Betbright, whilst Ladbrokes are also at 5/2, but don’t offer BOG until 9.00am. If you can’t get my price on this one, there is plenty of 9/4 on offer in several places, as you’ll see when you…
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