Double Dutch, 16th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th December 2014

It was a case of the old 1-2 again yesterday, as we paired a winner with a runner-up to make a losing day that just fell a length and a half shy of a useful 12.5/1 return.

We got the perfect result on the tapeta at Wolverhampton, getting the first two home and the longer priced of our two selections going on to win. The £3.22 forecast isn’t making any of us rich, but it’s nice to call it right, I suppose.

Unfortunately, though, the double has already gone down over at Plumpton a couple of hours of so earlier. Itoldyou only got to fence four before falling early in this 3m2f chase on heavy ground, which developed into a real stamina test. Our other runner, Ballyvoneen ran really well, as he always tends to at Plumpton, but was a good 4 lengths adrift coming around the home turn,  having outpaced and left behind.

He rallied on the straight to get upsides at the last, but the eventual winner outjumped him and got away cleaner and re opened a gap, which Ballyvoneen wasn’t able to close down completely. No disgrace in the defeat and he gallantly gave his all.

Monday’s results were as follows:

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Ballyvoneen: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Itoldyou: fell at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Spindle: won at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Missandei: 2nd at 11/10 (adv 7/4)
The forecast was £3.22 here.

Results to date:
437 winning selections from 1518 = 28.79%
139 winning bets in 394 days = 35.28%

Stakes: 789.50pts
Returns: 877.11pts

P/L : +87.61pts (+11.10% ROI)


And so, onto Tuesday and the following opportunities…

3.00 Southwell:

Not the best race you’ll ever see on this track and probably not one you’ll remember for long, but the withdrawal of Secret Oasis looks to have given a chance to a couple who might struggle to win a race elsewhere! And the one I think is best placed to win is probably Satellite Express, who after just five starts is easily the least exposed runner in the race and might be open to improvement running on Fibresand for the first time. She was far from disgraced when fifth in a 7f handicap at Kempton last week and such is the weakness of this contest, a run to the same level could well be enough here at 13/8 BOG.

The one I’d expect to mount the biggest challenge could well be Knockamany Bends at 11/4 BOG, whose proven liking for the surface just puts him ahead of Lazy Sioux, who didn’t seem at all happy here last week. Knockamany Bends is well exposed, of course and is now a 17-race maiden, but he has made the frame in 3 of his 5 runs at this trip and on four of his 6 runs on the A/W ( 2 from 3 here). This is arguably the weakest race he has contested for a while and he arrives here off the back of two decent handicap outings at Wolverhampton.


3.20 Kempton:

Salvatore Fury comes here in good nick, having won here over 6f in late October, before narrowly defeated dropping to today’s C&D 5f 12 days ago. He was just touched off by a neck that day and with just a 1lb rise in weight, should give yet another good account of himself here. And despite a 38 race career, he’s still unexposed on the A/W with just three runs (all placed : 312) to his name and he’s worth taking at 3/1 BOG here, especially considering his trainer’s record at this track.

He was just three parts of a length ahead of Doctor Parkes last time out and with the latter now a pound better off, another close contest is expected. He’s an 8-time winner at this trip and is no just 1lb higher than his last winning mark and could prove to be a real danger at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Satellite Express / Doctor Parkes @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : generally)
Satellite Express/ Salvatore Fury @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Paddy Power & Stan James)
Knockamany Bends / Doctor Parkes @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : generally available)
Knockamany Bends / Salvatore Fury @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)

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