Double Dutch, 19th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th December 2014

Back to winning ways on Thursday with a nice 19/1 double courtesy of wins from Toot Sweet at 3/1 SP and Tsarglas at 4/1 BOG. Our other two runners ran very creditably too with Flemi Two Toes making the frame at a decent price, whilst Henry Grace came from a long way off the pace to claim second place, 1.25 lengths behind Tsarglas.

Henry Grace’s late (too late?) dash for the line might well have been fruitless in the end, but it did reward those of us playing the exotics with another bonus in the shape of an £11.30 exacta (although we don’t count these in our figures!)

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Toot Sweet : won at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Flemi Two Toes: 3rd at 11/2 (adv 5/1)
Tsarglas : won at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Henry Grace : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
441 winning selections from 1530 = 28.82%
140 winning bets in 397 days = 35.26%

Stakes: 795.50pts
Returns: 887.11pts

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P/L : +91.61pts (+11.52% ROI)


We’ve been hitting some decent results of late and I hope to edge closer to the magical 100pt barrier from today’s chosen races…

12.00 Southwell:

10 days ago, you could have looked at Novalist‘s first attempt at 7f as a last straw to get him to show some consistency after just 4 wins from 44 starts at 5 and 6 furlongs. yet now we’re talking about a horse seeking a 10-day course hat-trick, having won both his 7f efforts under today’s jockey Jason Hart.

He made all last time out, but his game looked to be over when joined by a couple of runners 2f from home, but he kicked on again and won fairly cosily by a couple of lengths in the end. If approaching this race in the same manner, Novalist has every chance of going in again at 7/2 BOG, provided, of course, the further 6lb rise in weight doesn’t hold him back.], now he’s stepping up to a mile for the first time.

If that does happen, then the door is open for Two Shades of Grey to take full advantage. He has won over today’s trip on turf and is still unexposed on the A/w with just three prior starts to his name and comes here having only just been touched off over course and distance 10 days ago. he was staying on well that day and got to within half a length of the 70-rated winner and this drop in class should make life easier today.

Two Shades of Grey runs off the same mark as last time out, which is a bonus and with him beginning to build up a bit of a relationship with today’s jockey George Chaloner (432 in 3 starts together inc. LTO), he could be the one at 5/2 BOG (Bet365) today.


6.20 Wolverhampton:

The penny seems to have dropped over the last few weeks since a switch to the A/W for Warm Order. She was fourth here over course and distance four starts ago, when beaten by less than two lengths (the winner has since won again, whilst the 3rd placed horse is 2/2 and won yesterday). She was a decent second at Kempton a fortnight, when Luke Morris rode her for the first time and he was on board again when she won over C&D here last Friday.

Luke, as you’d expect, rode her out well that day, as she stayed on to win by a length and a half and they’ll bid to do the same again this evening. She’s up 6lbs for her efforts, but this looks a poor race with none of her nine rivals managing to win any of their last six races and between them they have just 2 wins from 87 runs here at Wolverhampton (Rightcar is 2/41, the rest are 0/46!). Warm Order really should be winning this at 3/1 BOG.

The lack of recent form or track form makes it tough to find a backup plan, but I’m going to side with Rat Catcher, who actually looks very overpriced at 8/1 BOG and might be worth a small E/W punt. He has at least won over today’s trip up at Ripon and is still unexposed on the A/W, having made just three starts to date.

All his three A/W runs have been here at Wolverhampton, finishing 352 and never beaten by far. That last run was his best effort when only beaten by a length and three quarters by stablemate and yard-preferred Your Gifted, who has since put in another couple of good efforts here, despite a 6lb rise. Not the strongest of shouts here, but Rat Catcher is the alternate pick.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Two Shades of Grey / Warm Order @ 12.20/1 (23/10 & 3/1 : Betbright)
Two Shades of Grey / Rat Catcher @ 30.50/1 (5/2 & 8/1 : Bet365)
Novalist / Warm Order @ 17.40/1 (18/5 & 3/1 : Betbright)
Novalist / Rat Catcher @ 39.50/1 (7/2 & 8/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)

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