Stat of the Day, 19th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2014

Pull The Chord ran no sort of race at all at Exeter, his jumping was suspect and a final error 3 flights from home put paid to any lingering hope that he might actually get involved.

As it was, that last error seemed to deflate him and he quickly went backwards as he eventually came home as the last of five finishers (6 ran) at the same 3/1 price we’d advised, so nothing to report there. We’re having a little bit of a lean run at present but SotD is a long-term project borne out by our figures over the last three years, but I’d still like to find the winner of today’s…

3.05 Ascot:

Where I think Little Boy Boru is overpriced at the 13/2 BOG offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Coral, whilst Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.00am on raceday) are offering 7/1.

That’s not to say I’m chasing a big pot to rescue my week, far from it, I never play that way. I just think there’s some value in the price (he is 11/2 in places already) at the moment and there is both form and stats to back up the call.

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I’m not going to overload you with stats and facts, there is the possibility that I might have been trying too hard of late and maybe pulling it back toward SotD basics is the key to getting the scoreboard ticking along in a more regular manner!

Our pick is trained by Miss Suzy Smith…

Who is profitable to back blindly and even more under certain (soon to be detailed!) circumstances. If, in fact, you’d backed every single one of Miss Smith’s 239 runners over the last years to a £10 level stake, you’d have made yourself an attractive £1367 profit, the equivalent of 57.2% back on top of your stake money and that’s because 36 (15.1%) of Suzy’s runners were winners.

In handicap contests, her horses are 30/169 (17.8% SR) for 90.5pts (+53.5% ROI) profit, so not too dissimilar to the overall figures, whilst her hurdlers outperform the average by winning 27 of 163 races (16.6% SR) for 139.2pts (+85.4% ROI) profit.

What you don’t want to be doing, however, is backing her hurdlers in non-handicap contests! They’ve won just 1 of 36 in the last four years, but conversely, it does mean that you should be backing her handicap hurdlers as a 26/127 (20.5% SR) record would testify. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 105.2pts to date at an ROI of 82.8%.

Those handicap hurdlers sent off in the 2/1 to 10/1 odds range have won 20 of 83 (24.1% SR) outings and have produced profits of 62.8pts (75.6% ROI). 

Our selection is to be ridden by Mr H.A.A. (Harry to us!) Bannister…

And whilst Suzy Smith is a trainer to follow, Harry is a jockey to follow too. Just 132 rides to date for harry, but 23 winners represent 17.4 of his rides and the 50.2pts level stakes profits are equivalent to 38.3% of stakes. His strike rate over hurdles is pretty similar to his overall record at 17.2% via a 10/58 record, but the level stakes profits of 8.3pts have led to a lower yield (14.3% ROI) than his average, but worth having!

In handicap races, Harry has an excellent 22/95 (23.2% SR) record, which has produced 82.4pts profits at an ROI of 87.7% and in handicap hurdles he has ridden 10 winners from 37 (27% SR) for 29.3pts (+79.1% ROI). As with Miss Smith, you should steer clear of Harry’s non-handicap hurdle rides (0/21!). I suppose that if you’re into laying (which I’m not!), there’s a couple of micro systems there for you!

Little Boy Boru has been in great form since joining Suzy’s team four starts ago. he was fourth of eight on his yard debut, but beaten by less than six lengths over 2m 6.5f on soft ground after 20 weeks off the track, so was probably entitled to have needed a run. He followed that up with back to back wins a Sandown & Plumpton last month (2m 4f soft, 2m 5f heavy) before running again three weeks ago at Newbury.

He was only third that day, but was only beaten by 4.5 lengths in a race of a far better standard than this one and he was in contention for most of the contest before tiring late on. I don’t he saw the full 3m 0.5f trip out that day and a drop back to familiar territory at 2m 6f could well be the key here, as the cut in the ground holds no fears for him.

He comes here in good heart, runs for a trainer and jockey with good numbers behind and looks overpriced at 13/2 BOG to me. There’s just about enough juice in the price to take an E/W bet if you wanted to, but my call today is a 1pt win bet on Little Boy Boru at 13/2 BOG and that can be from Bet365, BetVictor or Coral. The choice is yours, so…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Ascot 

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Here is today’s racecard.

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