Stat of the Day, 26th December 2014
There are hundreds of adjectives that I could use describe Reality Show’s run on Monday, but as many of them aren’t suitable for use in public, I’ll just say it was awful!
On paper, he looked a really good pick and he travelled well enough until around the 2 pole when he still looked to have a chance if he got a wriggle on. Unfortunately, it was a that point that he began to resemble a car taken out of gear and allowed to “freewheel” home and as his rivals accelerated he folded tamely and went backwards through the pack.
So much so, that he finished 10th of 11 runners, just 2 lengths ahead of the last horse home and beaten by a good (Bad!) 32 lengths at 5/1, slightly shorter than our advised 11/2 odds.
Lots of racing to aim at today, although I’m not a massive fan of Boxing Day racing if I’m honest. I know Kempton has a good card today, but Boxing Day often offers quantity over quality, but all races, good or bad, do admittedly have a winner, so I’m hoping I’ve got one in the…
Where Harry Bannister will ride the 7/2 BOG shot Beau Lake for trainer Suzy Smith.
The more eagle-eyed amongst you will remember I put up Little Boy Boru as my pick this time last week from the same jockey/trainer combo and we ended up with a fourth place finish after a rare misjudgement of the race’s pace by this talented young jockey. We all make mistakes and I’m happy to give Harry a chance of redeeming himself.
In a week of little racing activity, both Suzy’s and Harry’s stats I used in last week’s piece are relatively unchanged and are still equally valid and I’ve no qualms about re-using them! I won’t give you a lengthy spiel here, as I realise you’ve probably got loads of racecards to study today (ours, here, of course, are the best around!), but briefly…
Harry has ridden for Suzy six times to date, winning twice and making the frame twice (171334).
Overall, since 1/1/2011 : Suzy is 36/241 (14.9% SR) for 134.7pts (+55.9% ROI) profit, whilst Harry is 23/134 (17.2% SR) for 48.2pts (+36% ROI).
In handicaps : Suzy is 30/170 (13.7% SR) for 89.5pts (+52.7% ROI), Harry is 22/96 (22.9% SR) for 81.4pts (+84.3% ROI).
Over hurdles : Suzy is 27/164 (16.5% SR) for 138.2pts (+84.3% ROI), Harry is 10/59 (16.95% SR) for 7.3pts (+12.4% ROI)
Whilst in handicap hurdles : Suzy is 26/128 (20.3% SR) for 104.2pts (+81.4% ROI) and Harry is 10/38 (26.3% SR) for 28.3pts (+74.5% ROI)
And if you backed all Suzy Smith’s handicap hurdlers priced between 2/1 & 10/1 in the last four years you’ve have backed 20 winners from 84 (23.8% SR) runners and a £10 stake on each would have brought you level stakes profits of £618, a figure equivalent to 73.6% of your total outlay.
OK, they’ve good records, what about the horse?
Well Beau Lake‘s numbers stack up pretty well too. He was a course and distance winner on one of his two previous efforts here at Fontwell and he absolutely loves the mud. If a 113 record in his last runs on soft ground doesn’t make that point, then a 15113 record on heavy ground should!
He has won 5 of 18 hurdles races to date with all five wins coming from his 10 starts at today’s 2m 2.5f or shorter. He’s also 5/10 in races of 10 runners or less and 11313 in his five contests featuring less than 7 runners. Last seen a fortnight ago also makes this an ideal time to run again, as in the last four years, his record when turned out within 25 days of his last run is 112111.
So, I’d say conditions were ideal for Beau Lake here today and those stats above allied to those of both the jockey and trainer suggest that a 1pt win bet on Beau Lake could be a good thing at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Only three firms have priced this one up at the moment (midnight on Christmas Day!), so please do come back and…
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