Stat of the Day, 27th December 2014
Here on SotD, we do say that if at first you don’t succeed, you should try again and Harry Bannister’s ride on Beau Lake on Boxing Day was the proof of this particular (Christmas?) pudding.
Harry made amends for last week’s error of judgement by riding a perfectly timed run aboard Beau Lake at Fontwell. He bided his time, hit the front the late on and won by what looked a little bit more than the official neck verdict given. The distance, of course, is irrelevant, but it was a good race to watch and our advised 7/2 payout was half a point longer than the 3/1 SP.
A very curtailed week now comes to an end in Wales and the…
A 12-runner, Class 2, handicap hurdle over 3 miles on soft ground where David Pipe’s 3/1 BOG Katkeau carries 11-10 off a mark of 132 in race in which he looks the class act coming down markedly in grade.
David Pipe excels at these mid/long trips…
By mid/long trips, I refer to all races ranging from 2m 5f to 3m 2.5f in Mr Pipe’s case because, quite simply, he has lots of runners (200+ per year) at these trips and it’s actually profitable to just back them all!
Sine the start of 2008, his record over this spread of race distances is 232 winners from 1458 (15.9% SR) runners, which is a pretty fantastic strike rate considering the sheer volume of qualifiers. Now a £20 bet on each might well have set you back a fair bit in stake money, but level stakes profits of just over £7500 would equate to a 25.7% return on your money.
In handicap hurdle events that record is 78/569 (13.7% SR) for 197.6pts (+34.7% ROI) profit, from which we can drive the following in relation to today’s selection…
Those with an OR of 120 to 138 : 26/230 (11.3% SR) for 89.5pts (38.9% ROI)
Carrying 11-1 to 12-0 : 51/357 (14.3% SR) for 175.5pts (+49.2% ROI)
On soft ground : 24/107 (22.4% SR) for 119.3pts (+104.6% ROI)
All of the above point to a big run from Katkeau and also help create a very restrictive niche micro system, that’s a little too narrow for SotD purposes, but use it if you like…David Pipe / Hcp hurdlers / on soft / OR 117-143 / carrying 11-3 to 11-11 : these are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 64.7pts (+308.1% ROI) in the last 4 years!
What about the Pipe runners here at Chepstow?
Well, it probably won’t come as a surprise to find out he does rather well. Since 2009, he has had 29 winners from 123 runners (23.6% SR) here, which have generated level stakes profits of 69.8pt at an ROI of 56.7%. We can then drill down onto this set of 123 runners as follows…
Handicappers : 18/80 (22.5% SR) for 42pts (+52.5% ROI)
Hurdlers : 21/71 (29.6% SR) for 78.6pts (+110.7% ROI)
Running over 2.5 to 3 miles inclusive : 22/71 (31% SR) for 88.7pts (+124.9% ROI)
All three subsets are very impressive indeed and provide great results when more than one factor is present, but when David’s handicap hurdlers run here over 2m 4f to 3 miles, they have a 10/34 (29.4% SR) record that has produced levels takes profits of 38.9pts (+114.3% ROI).
Of those 34 runners, those rated at 112 or above are 9/25 (36% SR) for 46.1pts (+184.2% ROI), and 18 of these 25 runner were carrying 11-2 or more with 7 winners providing a 38.9% strike rate, 43.3pts profit and an ROI of 240.4%, but his last step is also a fairly niche area as before.
And the horse himself?
Well, for a 7 yr old, Katkeau is very lightly raced in the UK and therefore unexposed after just five outings since coming over from France where he had shown some decent form. Three of his five runs in this country have been at a higher level than this, including his win in a Listed event over 3m 1.5f on soft ground at Cheltenham six weeks and two starts ago.
He then ran again a week later in a grade 3 contest at Haydock and wasn’t disgraced in finishing fifth behind some bigger names in a race that might have come too quickly for him, considering the Cheltenham run was his first for 630 days!
He has now had five week’s rest and if running to his abilities, this is his race to lose and he might well go off as a fairly short favourite, so I’m advising you to get on early and place a 1pt win bet at 3/1 BOG on Katkeau today. This price is very widely available, so you should all get on without problems.
For a quick comparison between the various bookies…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS